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Data for August are expected to show a 9.2% fall in exports from
a year earlier, following a drop of 14.5% in July, according to
the median forecast of 33 economists in the poll.
Barclays and Nomura were the most bearish, forecasting that
overseas demand for Chinese goods worsened last month and are
predicting a 15% drop in exports, while Standard Chartered
forecast exports fell by just 4%.
Chinese factory activity shrank for a fifth straight month in
August, weighed down by a lack of new export orders and imported
parts, although factory owners indicated producer prices had
improved for the first time in seven months, in a nod to
improving domestic demand.
Policymakers have introduced a series of measures in recent
months to shore up growth, with the central bank and top
financial regulator last week easing some borrowing rules to aid
homebuyers. But analysts warn these measures may struggle to
move the needle amid a slowing labour market recovery and
uncertain household income expectations.
Imports are expected to have shrunk by 9.0%, after dropping
12.4% in July, reflecting slightly improved domestic demand.
But South Korean shipments to China, a leading indicator of
China's imports, dropped 27.5% last month, worsening from a
25.1% fall in July.
The median estimate in the poll indicated that China's trade
surplus would shrink, with analysts predicting it will come in
at $73.80 billion, compared with $80.6 billion in July.
China's trade data will be released on Thursday.
(Reporting by Joe Cash; Polling credits: Milounee Purohit and
Veronica Khongwir; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
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