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The
powerful Sept. 10 storm caused two dams to break, inundating
Libya's eastern city of Derna and killing thousands of people.
Residential blocks built along a typically dry riverbank
toppled, as the swollen river undermined foundations.
Building in flood plains, poor dam condition, long-lasting armed
conflict and other local factors played a role in the disaster.
But climate change caused up to 50% more rain during that
period, according to scientists with World Weather Attribution,
an international research collaboration that works to determine
how much climate change plays a role in specific weather events.
The scientists warned that as climate change pushes weather to
new extremes, it would remain risky to build homes on flood
plains or to use substandard materials.
"The interaction of these factors, and the very heavy rain that
was worsened by climate change, created the extreme destruction
[in Libya]", the scientists wrote in a statement.
They used climate and computer simulations to compare weather
events today with what they might have been if the climate had
not already warmed by 1.2 degrees Celsius above the average
preindustrial temperature.
Rainfall can increase or become more erratic with climate
change, as a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor –
allowing more moisture to build up before clouds finally break.
The "extremely unusual" storm event delivered 50% more rain than
it would have if there was no global warming, according to the
scientists' research. Such an event can be expected once every
300-600 years in the current climate, they said.
Meanwhile, climate change also caused up to a 40% increase in
the amount of rain that fell in early September across the
Mediterranean, causing floods that killed dozens in Greece,
Bulgaria and Turkey.
"The Mediterranean is a hotspot of climate change-fueled
hazards," said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at the
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment,
citing heatwaves and wildfires in the region over summer.
(Reporting by Riham Alkousaa; Editing by Alexandra Hudson)
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