'Not a single round': Slovak election could see Kyiv lose staunch ally
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[September 21, 2023]
By Jan Lopatka and Radovan Stoklasa
BANOVCE NAD BEBRAVOU, Slovakia (Reuters) - "We are a peaceful country.
We will not send a single round to Ukraine."
That was Robert Fico's blunt message for some 300 supporters at a
political rally last week in the western Slovakian town of Banovce nad
Bebravou, ahead of a Sept. 30 election that the populist former prime
minister is favorite to win.
Were he to follow through on his promise, it would represent a
sea-change for Slovakia, until now a staunch ally of its eastern
neighbor Ukraine in its war against Russia. Bratislava has supplied
weapons and offered strong political support to Kyiv within the European
Union and NATO.
"They will have to sit down anyway and find an agreement," Fico said of
the combatants. "Russia will never leave Crimea, never leave the
territories that it controls."
Fico is not guaranteed to win. No party is tipped to secure a majority
and forging a coalition government could prove tough. Western diplomats
and officials in Kyiv also say a small country like Slovakia can only go
so far in upending EU and NATO policy.
But the 59-year-old has raised eyebrows in Brussels and beyond by
criticizing sanctions against Russia, calling for a rapprochement with
Moscow when the war ends and pledging to veto Ukraine's membership of
NATO if ever that possibility arises.
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On the campaign trail, Fico has said the war "started in 2014 when
Ukrainian Nazis and fascists started murdering Russian citizens in
Donbas and Luhansk", echoing Moscow's justification for backing
separatists who seized land in eastern Ukraine.
His party is narrowly ahead in polls in a country where voters are weary
of economic pain from COVID restrictions, high inflation linked to the
Ukraine war and a surge in illegal migrants.
Disinformation on social media has added to polarization among voters
and contributed to public skepticism about supporting Ukraine, according
to sociologists.
Fico declined to be interviewed for this article and did not answer
emailed questions.
"We should not support them (Ukraine) with weapons because evil only
breeds more evil," said pensioner Eleonora Tanacova, 68, as she listened
to Fico's speech last Thursday. "This war will never end if we keep
supporting them."
WORRIES IN WEST
Fico's campaign rhetoric has Slovakia's allies worried, according to
four senior Western diplomats.
With Ukraine's counteroffensive yet to create a major breakthrough -
raising questions over how long allies will sustain their financial and
military support - EU and NATO leaders are desperate to maintain a
united front against Moscow.
Fico could also ally himself with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban,
an outlier in Europe who has maintained close ties to Russia, raising
the prospect of more clashes with Brussels over the rule of law, the war
in Ukraine and migration.
But Fico's pragmatism during previous tenures, when he took Slovakia
into the euro and largely avoided rows with EU and NATO partners, has
tempered such concerns.
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![](../images/092123PIX/news_q86.jpg)
Slovakia's former Prime Minister and leader of SMER-SSD party Robert
Fico attends the party's election campaign rally, ahead of
Slovakia's early parliamentary election in Banovce nad Bebravou,
Slovakia, September 14, 2023. REUTERS/Radovan Stoklasa/File Photo
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2023/Sep/21/images/ads/current/dare_lda_FOOTBALL_2023.png)
"Russian troops on your border and a fractured relationship with
your allies, is that you want?" said one of the diplomats. "Or does
he revert to being the pragmatist he has been?"
A second diplomat believed Fico would hesitate to cut arms supplies
to Ukraine beyond those from already depleted army stocks, given the
economic importance of ammunition makers and a repair base.
And Brussels has leverage. On matters of the rule of law, it can
withhold EU financial support for Slovakia, which badly needs it
with the fiscal deficit forecast at 6.85% of GDP this year, the
highest in the euro zone.
Ukrainian officials say they are concerned by the prospect of an
Orban coalition inside the EU, but note that Hungary does not
usually break rank on important decisions and so expect a limited
foreign policy impact if Fico wins.
Also, Fico's socially conservative SMER-SSD party is only just ahead
in the latest polls with 19.4% support, against 18.2% for the
liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) party. Much depends on how smaller
parties fare.
FAKE NEWS?
Fico, forced to resign in 2018 after the murder of an investigative
journalist triggered mass protests, has turned more radical in
opposition.
Disinformation, meanwhile, has spread, undermining public support
for Ukraine since Russia's full-scale invasion of 2022, said
Katarina Klingova of think-tank Globsec.
Slovakia, she added, has long been fertile ground for pro-Russian
narratives, thanks to its historical affinity, low trust in public
institutions and politicians moving once-fringe narratives into the
political mainstream.
"We saw those narratives were at the edge of the information
spectrum (in 2015), but now you switch on TV and almost in every
debate you have some political representative using disinformation
narratives," Klingova said.
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"They don't necessarily have to be supportive of the Kremlin ... but
definitely they play into the hands of Russia."
In early 2023, more than 40,000 Slovaks signed petitions to avoid
being called up in case of mobilisation, after hoax posts on social
media said a call-up to fight in Ukraine may be on its way.
The hoax was debunked, but the reaction pointed to the influence
that false information surrounding the Ukraine war has among
Slovakia's 5.5 million population.
A Globsec survey earlier this year found only 40% of Slovaks thought
Russia primarily responsible for invading Ukraine, the lowest count
across central and eastern Europe.
(Additional reporting by Andrew Gray in Brussels and Thomas
Balmforth in Kyiv; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Gareth Jones)
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