An El Niño weather pattern, which occurs when ocean temperatures
are warmer than normal, is expected to be strong this winter and
last into early next spring.
Illinois Climatologist Trent Ford said if you follow the
averages of an El Niño winter, Illinois should experience dryer
and warmer conditions in the coming months.
“That is the average of all those El Niño winters, but we’ve had
some El Niño winters that were much wetter and some that were
much colder,” Ford said.
Ford said an El Niño winter is not all that common, with only
about 15 to 20 occurrences since the 1950s.
On average, El Niño typically leads to a milder winter in the
North, from the Pacific Northwest to the Midwest. The jet stream
shift also brings weather and cooler weather to the South. This
would be welcome news for states that have been experiencing
drought, like Texas and Louisiana.
The last time Illinois experienced an El Niño winter five years
ago, temperatures overall were above normal. But the last two
days of January brought widespread cold weather to the state,
with many locations experiencing the coldest weather that has
been seen in decades with numerous record low temperatures
broken.
A very strong El Niño during the 2015-2016 winter contributed to
the warmest winter on record for the U.S. mainland. The country
was not spared massive snow storms though, including a blizzard
that brought the East Coast to a standstill.
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