|
 My
family has been farming in Logan County for almost 100 years, and we
have been raising purebred Shorthorn cattle for around 58 years. I
have a Master’s Degree in Agribusiness from Illinois State
University. If you would like to know about me and my background,
please feel free to visit my bio located at
https://extension.illinois.edu/lms/staff.
What does agricultural production look like for Logan County?
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) is still
working to finalize the data from the 2023 harvest year but has
recently published estimates of yields for Logan County and
statewide. NASS estimates that over 11 million acres of corn for
grain were harvested in Illinois, with the estimated statewide
average yield being 206 bushels/acre. For soybeans, NASS places
total planted acres at slightly above ten million with an estimated
statewide average yield of 63 bushels/acre. For Logan County,
estimated yields were slightly higher than the statewide averages,
with an estimated corn yield of 211.1 bushels/acre and an estimated
soybean yield of 68.4 bushels/acre. It will take some time for NASS
to complete their work, but what we all recognize is the lower yield
numbers than we see in a regular growing season (if such a one
exists).
We know that 2023 was a
difficult year for crop growth, but what does this mean for 2024?
The University of Illinois Extension’s Ag Economics team released
the projected 2024 crop budgets for Illinois in January. The budgets
for central Illinois estimate yield at 227 bushels/acre for corn and
72/bushels/acre for soybeans for high productivity farm ground, with
estimates for low productivity ground at 214 bushels/acre for corn
and 67 bushels/acre for soybeans. These projected yields seem to be
a return to what we could expect in central Illinois based on
historical trends, but the same cannot be said for market prices.
The 2024 crop budgets project prices of $4.50/bushel for corn and
$11.50/bushel for soybeans, which differs from their August 2023
estimates of $4.80/bushel for corn and $12.80 for soybeans. While
non-land production costs in 2023 sored to over $800 per acre in
2023, it is projected that non-land costs in 2024 will return to the
$800 per acre mark, partially due to lower costs for fertilizers.
Total costs per acre (non-land costs plus cash rent) are expected to
be around the 2022 total cost of $1,166 per acre, after total costs
soared past $1,200 per acre in 2023. The breakeven price for total
costs in central Illinois is above $5/bushel for corn, and anywhere
from $11.79/bushel to $12.22/bushel for soybeans depending on the
productivity of the ground. While we experienced higher income
levels for 2021 and 2022 thanks to high prices for corn and
soybeans, it is expected that margins are going to be much tighter
due to the lower market prices and relatively inflated costs of
production.
But what about our livestock
producers? Afterall, there are over 3,000 head of beef and dairy
cattle and approximately 71,000 hogs in Logan County. Recent USDA
cattle and calf inventory numbers show the national cattle inventory
is at its lowest since 1951 at approximately 87 million head. This
reduced number of cattle across the U.S. will likely lead to a 3.2%
reduction in beef production in 2024, which is projected to cause a
reduction in domestic consumption to 56.5 lbs. per person (down from
58.1 lbs. per person in 2023) and a 7.6% decrease in exports.
There is some good news for cattle producers, as the market price
for beef is expected to continue its upward trend. A smaller than
expected calf crop and fewer feeders under 500 lbs. will continue to
drive the price for feeders higher than the records set during 2023.
Additionally, cheaper corn prices could provide additional relief
for feeding costs. Much of the success of the beef industry this
year will continue to depend on the economy, inflation, and how much
consumers are willing to spend for beef.
How can we help?
Extension prepares for a needs assessment survey
Since I started in January, I have been telling farmers and other
stakeholders across Logan, Menard, and Sangamon counties that we are
in an interesting time in agriculture. Farmers and producers are
facing pressures and challenges on many different fronts. Whether it
be economic challenges, environmental pressures, government
policies, or something else, the job of feeding the world is
certainly not getting any easier. I like to use the analogy of a
tightrope walker with no balance beam.
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So, what can I and Extension
do to help? My role as an educator is to be a resource and provide
information to farmers and other stakeholders across our three
counties. Whether it be through farm visits to help you diagnose a
pest or disease in your crops, hosting educational programs with
experts from campus and the local area, or offering other resources
through our website, we are here to provide you with information and
resources to navigate these interesting times.
Extension can be a balancing beam, a tool that you can utilize to
make informed decisions for the future of your operations.
Soon, I will be conducting a needs assessment across the three
counties to fully understand the challenges you are facing, and the
educational opportunities we can provide. This will consist of
one-on-one conversations throughout the three counties, and a survey
that will help us understand how Illinois Extension can best serve
you.
I am extremely excited for the opportunity to be a resource and to
give back to the community that I have called home for my entire
life. You can reach me by calling the Logan County Extension office
at (217)732-8289, or by emailing me at
rgtibbs@illinois.edu.
Have a safe and successful Spring!
[Reagen Tibbs
Commercial Ag Educator
Logan, Menard & Sangamon Counties
University of Illinois Extension]
References
Franken, J. "Records are Made to be Broken!" farmdoc daily (14):24,
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of
Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, February 5, 2024.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/
02/records-are-made-to-be-broken.html.
“Illinois Cattle County Estimates.” USDA NASS. 8 May 2023.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_
by_State/Illinois/Publications/County_
Estimates/2023/20230509-IL-Cattle-County-
Estimates.pdf.
“Illinois Corn County Estimates.” USDA NASS. 23 Feb. 2024.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_
by_State/Illinois/Publications/County_
Estimates/2024/20240223-IL-Corn-
Production-by-County.pdf.
“Illinois Soybean County Estimates.” USDA NASS. 23 Feb. 2024.
https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by
_State/Illinois/Publications/County_Estimates/
2024/20240223-IL-Soybean-Production-by-County.pdf.
Paulson, N., and G. Schnitkey. "Revised 2024 Crop Budgets." farmdoc
daily (14):6, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics,
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, January 9, 2024.
https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/01/
revised-2024-crop-budgets.html.
“2022 Census of Agriculture, Illinois State and County Data.” USDA
NASS. Feb. 2024, vol. 1, p. 429.
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