LDN - Business

Shares fall with US yields near 4-month high, earthquake hits Taiwan

[April 03, 2024] By Amanda Cooper

LONDON (Reuters) -Global stocks eased on Wednesday in the face of rising bond yields, as investors assessed how much U.S. rates might fall this year, while a powerful earthquake in Taiwan raised concerns about possible disruptions to the vital chip-making industry.

A string of robust U.S. data, coupled with a rise in the oil price to its highest in five months, prompted traders to lower their expectations for three interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.

Government bonds were sold heavily, pushing yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note to five-month highs, while equities stepped back from record peaks.

The MSCI All-World index fell 0.1% in its third consecutive daily drop, while European equities traded modestly in negative territory. U.S. futures fell 0.2-0.3% ahead of an appearance from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. services and jobs figures later on.

"Today, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell who’s giving a speech on the economic outlook, so the focus will be on whether he offers any new commentary about the timing of potential rate cuts," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

"We’ve also got the ISM services index today, along with the jobs report on Friday, so there’s still plenty of data this week that will shape the market narrative."

In Asia, shares in Taiwan skidded 0.5% after a 7.2 magnitude earthquake rocked the island, collapsing buildings, killing at least four people and injuring dozens.

Chipmaker TSMC's's shares fell 0.9% after it said some facilities were evacuated following the quake. Taiwan makes up about 90% of TSMC's production.

A recent run of solid U.S. economic data - including an unexpected expansion in the manufacturing sector and slow easing in the labor market - has cast doubt on how much the Fed might cut rates this year and next.

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The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 28, 2024. REUTERS/Staff

A pair of Fed policymakers on Tuesday both said they think it would be "reasonable" to cut U.S. interest rates three times this year, but markets are only pricing in about 69 basis points in easing.

"At this last meeting, they still indicate three times, but these movements tend to have some momentum. As they start to shift, you find that they will probably shift again next meeting and then by next meeting, they probably will be indicating that they're going to cut only twice," said Andrew Lilley, chief rates strategist at Barrenjoey in Sydney.

"And there's a very high chance of one in three that they don't ease at all."

The benchmark 10-year yield edged up 1 basis point on the day to 4.377%, after hitting a four-month high of 4.405% overnight.

Investors now await euro zone inflation data, which could undershoot expectations, after German inflation eased more than expected.

Meanwhile, the dollar got a modest boost from higher Treasury yields. The yen was jittery at 151.72 per dollar, just a whisker away from the 152 level that prompted Japanese monetary authorities to intervene in late 2022.

Oil held near five-month highs, driven by concern about tighter supplies ahead of an OPEC+ meeting, where the group is unlikely to change output policy.

Brent <LCOc1> rose 0.25% to $89.14 a barrel, while U.S. crude gained 0.15% to trade at $85.28.

Gold took a breather from its record rally on Wednesday, edging down 0.3% $2,274 an ounce, having hit an all-time high of $2,288.09 earlier in the session.

(Additional reporting by Stella Qiu in Sydney. Editing by Sam Holmes and Bernadette Baum)

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