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The widely watched CSU forecast calls for five major hurricanes,
or those with winds above 111 miles per hour (178 kph), out of
11 total hurricanes that are part of a projection for 23 named
storms.
The forecasts are closely monitored by coastal communities and
energy companies. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico accounts for 15% of
total U.S. crude oil production and 5% of its dry natural gas
production, and nearly 50% of the nation's oil-refining capacity
resides on its shores.
"We anticipate a well above-average probability for major
hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States
coastline and in the Caribbean," CSU said.
An average hurricane season produces 14 named storms, of which
seven lead to hurricanes and three become major cyclones.
Last year, there were three major hurricanes that formed among
seven hurricanes and 20 named storms, the fourth greatest number
of named storms since 1950. The most damaging, Idalia, tore up
the west coast of Florida and made landfall as a category 3
hurricane.
CSU's forecast is in line with other initial outlooks. Last
week, AccuWeather said there was a 10-15% chance of 30 or more
named storms in the 2024 hurricane season, which begins June 1
and runs to Nov. 30.
Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the CSU forecast, said 2024
appears similar to other very active hurricane seasons.
The basis for his forecast is above average sea surface
temperatures that fuel hurricanes and the impending end to the
El Nino weather pattern, which carries high winds that can break
up storms in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean.
(Reporting by Erwin Seba; Editing by Leslie Adler)
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