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Morning Bid: Wall St eclipsed as June Fed cut in balance

[April 08, 2024] A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan

If investors were looking to the gods for Wall St's next move, the portents all look a bit ominous.

A rare total solar eclipse over swathes of North America later on Monday follows one of the largest earthquakes on the East Coast of the United States in the last century on Friday.

For those less superstitious, the financial backdrop was similarly anxious. Odds on a Federal Reserve rate cut in June are lengthening - with the chances of a move by then now just 50-50 following another bumper U.S. employment report on Friday.

Only two quarter point cuts this year are now fully priced in futures markets, with full-year easing bets ebbing to just 63 basis points on Monday.

Even though Wall St stock indexes staged a decent rally after the jobs report - which packed twin positives of above-forecast job creation and moderating wage growth - a negative first week of the new quarter left a sour taste.

Stock futures were in the red again first thing on Monday as the S&P500 recoiled almost 1% for the whole of last week.

And celestial events aside, there's an event packed week ahead.

The March consumer price inflation report is due Wednesday, there are 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions through the week, the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada hold important policy meetings, Fed meeting minutes are released on Wednesday and the first-quarter U.S. corporate earnings season kicks off with some of the big banks on Friday.

While there's a lot to unpack in all that, it's hard to get away from the overarching brake on markets from ebbing Fed easing expectations. And fearful of a correction, the VIX volatility gauge remains elevated near its highest close for the year to date.

And it's another bruising period for bonds, with U.S. two- and 10-year Treasury yields hitting their highest since November at 4.79% and 4.45% respectively first thing on Monday.

It's not just juggling the date of the first rate cut either. With Fed officials mulling higher estimates for their neutral interest rate assumption, given the ongoing strength of the economy, rate futures now only see about 150bp of easing for the entire cycle.

Since the end of last year, the assumed "terminal rate" in March 2026 has risen almost 100bps to 3.90%.

A noted Fed dove - Chicago's Austan Goolsbee - and a recognized hawk - Minneapolis Fed boss Neel Kashkari - both speak later on Monday.

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People walk around the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., December 29, 2023. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz/FILE PHOTO

The dollar is pumped up again as a result - chomping at the bit against Japan's yen again just under 152 yen despite residual fears of Japanese government intervention.

Payrolls aside, part of the problem last week was the jump in oil prices - as building global demand meets supply disruptions and geopolitical worries.

U.S. crude prices hit their highest in almost six months last week above $87 per barrel. Their retreat on Monday to about $86 may calm the horses a bit as Middle East tensions eased after Israel withdrew more soldiers from southern Gaza and committed to fresh talks on a potential ceasefire in the six-month conflict.

Overseas, stocks were generally buoyant on Monday. Japan's Nikkei outperformed in Asia, while European stocks were higher too.

With the ECB meeting due on Thursday, there's growing speculation the ECB will cut rates in June even if the Fed doesn't.

The mood in China was more downbeat, however, as stock benchmarks there fell on Monday. Chinese property developer Shimao tumbled 18.7% after China Construction Bank filed a liquidation petition against it in Hong Kong over its failure to repay loans of HK$1,579.5 million ($201.8 million).

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned China on Monday that Washington will not accept new industries being decimated by Chinese imports as she wrapped up four days of meetings to press her case for Beijing to rein in excess industrial capacity. Yellen told a media conference that U.S. President Joe Biden would not allow a repeat of the "China shock" of the early 2000s, when a flood of Chinese imports destroyed about 2 million American manufacturing jobs.

Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:

* NY Fed inflation expectations survey, U.S. March employment trends

* Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari both speak; Swiss National Bank chair Thomas Jordan speaks

* U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen in Beijing

* US Treasury sells 3-, 6-month bills

(By Mike Dolan, editing by Andrew Cawthorne)

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