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Trade data for March is expected to show outbound shipments
shrank 2.3% year-on-year, according to the median forecast of 34
economists, reversing some of the 7.1% increase in the
January-February period.
The forecast downturn contrasts with the robust external
shipments under the manufacturing purchasing managers' index
(PMI) surveys for last month, but reinforce analysts'
expectation for overall China exports growth to pull back
materially due to the higher year-ago base comparison.
"The deadweight tonnage of ships in 20 major ports (including
both arrival and departure) declined 6.2% year-on-year in March
1-30," a Citi note said earlier this month.
Exports unexpectedly surged in March last year, but the customs
administration revised down the value of March exports by a wide
margin later in 2023.
The nation's exporters faced a tough period for much of last
year due to soft overseas demand and tight global monetary
policy.
China's economy got off to a relatively solid start this year
after policymakers rolled out support measures to revive
household consumption, private investment and market confidence
since the second half of 2023.
Yet, growth in the Asian giant remains uneven and analysts don't
expect a full-blown revival anytime soon mainly due to a
protracted property sector crisis.
Official data also showed on Thursday consumer inflation had
cooled more than expected in March, pointing to the sluggish
demand conditions.
Analysts also say Western concerns over China's overcapacity in
some industries may bring more trade barriers for the world's
manufacturing hub.
China's imports likely increased 1.4% in March, according to the
poll, slower than the 3.5% gain in the first two months
combined.
South Korean exports in that same month to China, a leading
indicator of China's imports, rose 0.4% from a year earlier,
improving from a 2.4% fall in February. Overall, the Korean data
shows that Chinese domestic demand remains tepid.
The median estimate in the poll predicted China's trade surplus
will come in at $70.2 billion.
The data will be released on Friday.
(Polling by Milounee Purohit and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru and
Jing Wang in Shanghai; Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Kevin Yao;
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)
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