Surging US energy shares reflect robust growth, inflation worries
Send a link to a friend
[April 13, 2024] By
Lewis Krauskopf
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. energy shares are soaring as investors benefit
from rising oil prices and a stronger-than-expected economy, while
seeking to protect their portfolios from a feared resurgence of
inflation.
The S&P 500 energy sector is up about 17% in 2024, roughly doubling the
broader index's year-to-date return. Its gains have accelerated in
recent weeks, making it the S&P 500's best performing sector in the past
month.
One key driver is the price of oil: U.S. crude has risen 20%
year-to-date due to an unexpectedly strong U.S. economy and worries over
a broadening Middle East conflict.
Some investors also believe rising energy shares could hedge against
U.S. inflation. Consumer price rises have proven more stubborn than
expected this year, threatening to restrain the broader stock rally by
undermining expectations for how much the Federal Reserve will cut rates
in 2024.
"If inflation is going to pop up again ... the hedge is to have some
commodities exposure," said Ayako Yoshioka, senior portfolio manager at
Wealth Enhancement Group.
The portfolios she manages have been overweight in energy stocks,
including those of oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron, as she noted more
disciplined capital spending by energy companies.
Among the top energy sector performers so far this year were Marathon
Petroleum, up 40%, and Valero Energy, up 33%.
The economy will be in focus in the coming week as first-quarter
earnings season heats up, with reports from Netflix, Bank of America and
Procter & Gamble. Monthly U.S. retail sales out on Monday will offer a
view into U.S. consumer behavior, on the heels of another
stronger-than-expected inflation report last Wednesday.
Energy stocks have risen as a U.S. equities rally has broadened beyond
the growth and technology companies that led gains last year. Investors'
appetite for non-commodities-related sectors could take a hit, however,
if inflation expectations keep rising and worries about a hawkish Fed
grow.
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2024/Apr/13/images/ads/current/hartsburggrain_sda_SFARM_2024.png)
Inflation fears have made markets more turbulent in recent weeks.
Outside of equities, concerns over rising consumer prices have lifted
gold, a popular inflation hedge, to record highs. Energy stocks were
also thriving outside the U.S.
Shares of miners, steel firms and other commodity-linked companies have
risen along with energy stocks.
[to top of second column] |
![](../images/041324PIX/busine41.jpg)
A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE) in New York City, U.S., April 5, 2024. REUTERS/Andrew
Kelly/File Photo
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2024/Apr/13/images/ads/current/graue_lda_preowned_040824.jpg)
"Investors are looking at the world and they're seeing that the
economy really isn't slowing down much ... at a time when there are
various concerns over bottlenecks regarding supplies of commodities,
especially oil," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment
Counsel Corp.
Energy shares fell nearly 5% in 2023, while the broader S&P 500
gained 24%. But their inflation hedging credentials received a boost
in 2022. That year, the S&P 500 energy sector jumped about 60%,
providing a bright spot in a stock market that plunged as the Fed
raised interest rates to fight inflation that had reached 40-year
highs.
Strategists at Morgan Stanley and RBC Capital Markets in the past
week reiterated their bullish calls on energy shares. In a note,
RBC's Lori Calvasina cited heightened geopolitical risks and a
"growing acceptance of the idea that the economy is actually quite
strong."
Analysts are also noting comparatively low valuations. The S&P 500
energy sector trades at 13 times forward 12-month earnings estimates
compared to nearly 21 times for the overall S&P 500, according to
LSEG Datastream.
Oil prices could take a hit if Middle East tensions ease, or if
global growth starts to wobble, potentially clouding the outlook for
energy shares.
Conversely, strong economic growth could boost corporate profits and
steer investors into other sectors that have done well this year,
such as industrials and financials. Companies in the S&P 500 are
expected to increase earnings by 9% this year, LSEG IBES data
showed.
Marta Norton, chief investment officer in the Americas for
Morningstar Wealth, said her firm owns shares of energy pipeline
companies and other Master Limited Partnerships, or MLPs, which
could protect against firmer inflation.
Still, she believes the economy could begin slowing in coming
months, allowing the Fed to cut rates in June.
"What we see today is that the timing around a Fed pivot and the
timing around how the economy actually slows is really an open
question," Norton said. "You really need to manage a portfolio for a
range of outcomes."
(Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and
Richard Chang)
[© 2024 Thomson Reuters. All rights
reserved.]
This material may not be published,
broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content. |