US aid could buy Kyiv time, but Ukraine needs many more troops
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[April 22, 2024]
By Tom Balmforth, Charlotte Bruneau
KYIV/NEAR KUPIANSK, Ukraine (Reuters) -For the exhausted Ukrainian
artillery gunners holding off Russian forces near the eastern town of
Kupiansk, the U.S. aid package expected to finally pass this week is a
lifeline and, potentially, a gamechanger, although that could take some
time.
"If they'd passed it (earlier), it would have changed the situation
dramatically," said one soldier, call sign "Sailor", who said a shortage
of shells had reduced their covering fire for infantrymen, costing lives
and territory.
After six months of congressional wrangling, the $61 billion aid package
is now expected to be approved this week by the U.S. Senate and signed
by President Joe Biden, replenishing Kyiv's critically low stocks of
artillery shells and air defenses.
The influx of weapons should improve Kyiv's chances of averting a major
Russian breakthrough in the east, said two military analysts, an
ex-Ukrainian defense minister and a European security official.
But Kyiv still faces manpower shortages on the battlefield, while
questions linger over the strength of its fortifications along a
sprawling, 1,000-km front line ahead of what President Volodymyr
Zelenskiy said could be a Russian summer offensive.
"The most important source of Ukrainian weakness is the lack of
manpower," said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Rochan military
consultancy in Poland.
After months of debate, a law signed by Zelenskiy on April 16 to
overhaul the rules governing how Ukraine mobilizes civilians into the
army enters force in May with the aim of making the process faster, more
transparent and effective.
But new draftees will require months of training before they can be
deployed, which in turn creates a "window of opportunity" for Russia to
exploit, Muzyka said.
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"I would expect the situation to probably continue to deteriorate over
the next three months, but if mobilization goes according to plan and
the U.S. aid is unblocked then the situation should improve from autumn
onwards," he said.
The Kremlin said the U.S. aid would not alter Russia's upper hand on the
front lines and would simply result in more Ukrainian deaths.
NARROW THE SHELL GAP
Moscow has had the battlefield advantage since capturing Avdiivka, a
long-time bastion town in the eastern Donbas region, in February, and
its forces have been slowly advancing, using greater numbers of troops
and artillery shells.
They are now bearing down on the town of Chasiv Yar, located on high
ground that, if captured, would bring Moscow closer to the remaining
Kyiv-held Donbas cities of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.
Zelenskiy said last week that Russia was now able to fire 10 times more
artillery rounds than Ukraine's troops. Russian forces outnumber Kyiv's
troops 7-10 times in the east, a Ukrainian general said this month.
Andriy Yusov, Ukraine's military intelligence spokesman, said Moscow was
focused on the full capture of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions
-- the Donbas.
Russia, he added, was attacking on three fronts there - west of Avdiivka,
from Kupiansk to Lyman and west of Bakhmut. In the south, it was
pressing on Robotyne, the village retaken by Kyiv during last year's
offensive, he said.
Ukrainian positions have been pounded this year by thousands of glide
bombs fired by warplanes taking advantage of Russian air superiority and
dwindling Ukrainian air defenses.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former Ukrainian defense minister, said an influx
of ground-based air defenses would help, while U.S.-produced F-16
fighter jets, which Kyiv expects to receive later this year, would force
Russian warplanes back entirely.
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![](../images/042224PIX/news_p26.jpg)
Servicemen of the 1148th separate artillery brigade of Air Assault
Troops of Ukraine fire a M777 howitzer towards Russian troops, amid
Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Donetsk region, Ukraine April 20,
2024. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/Serhii Nuzhnenko via
REUTERS/File Photo
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Replenished stocks of artillery shells should bring the gap in
rounds fired down to several Russian rounds for every one Ukrainian
round, he added.
"We don't need to have one-to-one. Three to one would still do the
job," he said, citing Kyiv's more "calculated" approach versus
Russia's reliance on quantity.
In addition to U.S. aid, European Union assistance includes a
Czech-led initiative that will begin supplying Ukraine some 300,000
rounds of 155 mm artillery shells beginning in June.
A senior European security source told Reuters that if Ukraine
received the new U.S. and EU assistance, the likelihood of averting
a major Russian breakthrough over the next 12 months was "quite
high".
LOSING MORE GROUND
The Ukrainian military needed a "massive" influx of personnel to
stall Russian forces across the entire front, Muzyka said, adding
that a separate recruitment drive to enlist volunteer fighters would
not be enough to cover the deficit.
The European security source also said Ukraine needed to step up its
mobilization effort.
Neither side in the conflict shares official data on their own
military strength and casualty rates.
Ukraine's Yusov said Russia, which controls 18% of Ukrainian
territory, has between 450,000-470,000 ground troops fighting in
Ukraine in addition to 35,000 national guardsmen as well as separate
air force and naval operations taking place.
Kyiv has said in the past that it has around 1 million people under
arms.
In December, Zelenskiy said his military wanted to mobilize up to
half a million new soldiers. Ukraine's top commander said after
taking the helm in February that a review of resources had concluded
that a "significantly reduced" number were needed.
Muzyka said it was unclear how deep Ukraine's fortifications were.
The military says it has been working around the clock to improve
them and Zelenskiy said this month construction was up to 98%
complete in some areas of the front.
"Essentially what we're looking at in 2024 is as strong enough a
defensive position as possible, but accepting that the Ukrainians
are probably going to lose some ground to the Russians," Matthew
Savill, military sciences director at the London-based RUSI
think-tank, said.
That, he said, was the result of last year's Ukrainian
counteroffensive which proved unable to significantly pierce Russian
lines, Russia's concentration of forces and the long delay in the
approval of U.S. military assistance.
"This is far later and a far less favorable position than the
Ukrainians would have been hoping for in winter in terms of this
support and other support," he said.
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"The big challenge now is to simultaneously put up a strong defense
and then prepare for an offensive in 2025."
(Additional reporting by Jonathan Landay in Washington; Writing by
Tom Balmforth; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Philippa Fletcher)
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