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The
official purchasing managers' index (PMI) likely slipped to 50.3
in April from 50.8 in March, according to the median forecast of
33 economists in the poll. The 50-point mark separates growth
from contraction.
The data will be released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)
on Tuesday.
The world's second-biggest economy grew faster than expected in
the first quarter, offering some relief to officials, but March
indicators showed domestic demand remains frail. The property
downturn continues to hurt local governments' finance and
household confidence, analysts said.
High frequency indicators such as steel demand showed muted
growth in April, according to analysts at Goldman Sachs.
"Residual seasonality in NBS manufacturing PMI also poses some
downward pressure on the April reading. In historical years with
similar calendar patterns to this year, both the NBS and Caixin
manufacturing PMI tended to decrease in April."
The private Caixin factory survey, which will also be issued on
Tuesday, is expected to show the manufacturing PMI in April
slowed to 51.0 from 51.1 in March, according to the median
forecast of 17 economists polled by Reuters.
Investors expect the Chinese authorities to launch more stimulus
to support the economy and are waiting for the April Politburo
meeting, which is expected to focus on economic affairs and be
held by the end of April.
Analysts said policymakers are in no hurry to roll out more
easing measures as the 5.3% year-on-year real GDP growth in the
first quarter surpassed the "around 5%" growth target for this
year.
However, with the U.S. Federal Reserve and other developed
economies not rushing to cut interest rates and rising trade
tensions between the West and China, Beijing may face a longer
period of tepid external demand and have to deal with multiple
geopolitical challenges weighing on its economic recovery.
(Polling by Devayani Sathyan and Anant Chandak in Bengaluru and
Jing Wang in Shanghai; Reporting by Ellen Zhang and Ryan Woo;
Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
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