Caleb Williams' OROY odds strengthen, Michael Penix's plummet

 

[April 30, 2024]  The NFL draft is when talent and opportunity combine to immediately change the short- and long-term opportunities presented to prospects.

That was at the forefront of this year's first round, when Caleb Williams was selected No. 1 overall by Chicago. The former Southern California star is expected to walk in the door as the Bears' starting quarterback.

Seven picks later, the biggest shock of the first round took place when the Atlanta Falcons selected their own quarterback in Washington's Michael Penix Jr. That was despite having recently given Kirk Cousins a four-year, $180 million deal that includes $100 million guaranteed.

That was also despite Penix's lengthy injury history and that he's already an "older" rookie as he enters the league at 23 years old.

Oddsmakers quickly shortened Williams' odds of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. That includes at DraftKings, where he went from +250 pre-draft to +200 on Monday. By contrast, Penix's OROY odds plummeted from +1800 to +6000 as he's expected to spend at least the 2024 season mentoring behind Cousins.

Wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. remained the second favorite behind Williams, but saw his odds lengthen slightly from +550 to +600 after going fourth overall to Arizona as many analysts projected.

LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels was another player to see his odds impacted, shortening to +650 after going No. 2 overall to Washington. He separated from his former teammate, wide receiver Malik Nabers, after both entered the draft at +800.

Meanwhile, Texas wide receiver Xavier Worthy saw his odds skyrocket from +3500 to +1600 after Kansas City traded up in the first round to grab the speedster at No. 28. Many view his pairing with Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes and coach Andy Reid as an ideal fit in the mold of Tyreek Hill.

OFFENSIVE ROY ODDS (Pre-Draft, Post-Draft)*

Caleb Williams, QB, Southern Cal (+250, +200)

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State (+550, +600)

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU (+800, +650)

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan (+1600, +800)

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU (+800, +1200)

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina (+1100, +1600)

Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas (+3500, +1600)

Bo Nix, QB, Oregon (+3500, +1600)

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington (+1100, +2200)

Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU (+2500, +2500)

Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia (+2200, +3500)

Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas (+3500, +3500)

Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington (+1800, +6000)

*DraftKings

Alabama pass rusher Dallas Turner was the third defensive player off the board at No. 17 to Minnesota, but he leads the Defensive Rookie of the Year odds at +400. That's ahead of UCLA edge rusher Laiatu Latu (+700), who went two picks ahead of Turner to Indianapolis.

The other top names on the defensive side are cornerback Quinyon Mitchell (Philadelphia, +1000) and pass rushers Jared Verse (Los Angeles Rams, +1100) and Chop Robinson (Miami, +1300).

--Field Level Media

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