How the Harris surge scrambled Trump's battle plan

[August 08, 2024]  By Gram Slattery, Alexandra Ulmer and Nathan Layne

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A little over two weeks ago, Donald Trump's presidential campaign had visions of an expansive national strategy that would result in a landslide victory in November.

Now, as they struggle to blunt a surging Kamala Harris, who swiftly replaced President Joe Biden as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate last month, campaign advisers say they are recalibrating to protect states once thought of as safe and narrowing ambitions for the electoral map.

While top Trump advisers once saw a chance for an electoral blowout - with Democratic-leaning states like Minnesota and Virginia in play - the elevation of Harris has prompted Republicans to refocus on a narrower path to victory that runs through traditional battleground states like Pennsylvania and Georgia.

"The race has changed," Corey Lewandowski, a longtime adviser to the former president, told Reuters, though he said the race still favors Trump. "There's a lot of us that wanted to very actively run against Joe Biden. We felt very good about our race."

Publicly, Trump and his allies have tried vigorously to cast Harris, a Californian, as an out-of-touch liberal and link her to unpopular Biden policies on immigration and inflation. They say it matters little whether they are facing Biden or Harris.

Internally, nine sources told Reuters they see Harris as a far tougher opponent than Biden, who had been struggling for months in the face of doubts about his mental acuity and weakening poll numbers.

"It doesn't change the map as much as shrink it. Now there's no reason to talk about places like New Jersey anymore," said a member of the Trump campaign, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal campaign matters.

Reuters interviewed 12 campaign staff, advisers and donors who described a campaign that is grasping for a fresh strategy as it confronts a younger, more dynamic Democratic candidate who has energized the Democratic base and raised hundreds of millions of dollars in a matter of days.

"It's clear to everyone she could win," said one senior Trump adviser, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to more freely discuss internal deliberations.

When asked about the prospects of a shrinking battleground map, the Trump team said its strategy hadn't changed since Harris became the Democratic candidate.

"Team Trump has ads in every battleground state, we have expanded the political map to include traditional 'blue states' like Minnesota and Virginia with staff on the ground," Republican Party spokesperson Anna Kelly said.

Ammar Moussa, a Harris campaign spokesman, said Trump and Vance were taking the country backwards, while Harris was taking the country forwards. He did not address the electoral map.

The Trump sources Reuters spoke to pointed to three issues: delays in rolling out attack ads against Harris, which are seen as key for pointing out an opponent's perceived weaknesses; doubts among some Republican leaders and donors over the selection of Senator JD Vance as running mate; and concerns over Trump himself as he tramples over his advisers' efforts to define Harris based on her policy positions.

One source said the anti-Harris ads had been slow to air in part because the material had to be run by focus groups first.

The campaign also wanted to see who Harris would pick as her running mate, according to the source briefed on the plans.

Harris this week announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, a plain-speaking midwesterner, as her vice presidential candidate.

MAY MEMO

By late May, the Trump campaign had started gaming out the possibility that Harris or another Democrat could replace Biden at the top of the ticket, according to an internal memo from campaign staffer Austin McCubbin shared with senior advisers.

The 12-page memo, which was reviewed by Reuters, outlined the Democratic Party's rules for replacing a presidential candidate and possible scenarios, including Biden stepping down voluntarily and an "insider rebellion."

The memo did not detail how to respond to a Harris candidacy.

Tony Fabrizio, a Trump campaign pollster, predicted in a memo released to the press last month that Harris would enjoy a short-term polling boost, but that the race would then settle down. "Harris' 'honeymoon' will end and voters will refocus on her role as Biden's partner and co-pilot," he wrote in the memo.

In the lead-up to Biden's exit, the Trump-aligned MAGA Inc super PAC readied a TV ad accusing Harris of covering up Biden's infirmity. It began airing in four swing states on July 21, the day Biden announced that he was ending his reelection campaign.

U.S. Vice President and Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaks to supporters during a campaign rally in Romulus, Michigan, U.S., August 7, 2024. REUTERS/Rebecca cook

At the same time, the campaign found itself on the defensive over Trump's selection of Vance as his running mate.

Vance has faced a wave of negative press over past comments referring to some Democrats, including Harris, as "a bunch of childless cat ladies," an insult seen as misogynistic and dismissive of people without children.

The Republican National Committee and the campaign have been fielding calls from some donors who fear Vance has become a distraction and is dragging the ticket down, according to two sources aware of the calls.

As the campaign focuses on a smaller map, Vance is expected to spend more time in relatively conservative and rural places, particularly in Rust Belt states, like Michigan and Pennsylvania, where his rural roots and concerns about industrial decay are more likely to resonate with voters, according to four sources close to the campaign or vice presidential candidate.

This week, Vance has held press conferences near Harris-Walz campaign events in Wisconsin and Michigan.

TRUMP ATTACKS HARRIS - AND HIS ALLIES

And then there is Trump's resort to name-calling instead of focusing on Harris' policy positions. Trump has cycled furiously through a series of personal insults against Harris. Those efforts have generated negative headlines - about Trump, rather than Harris.

At an event for the National Association of Black Journalists last week, Trump questioned whether Harris - whose mother was born in India and whose father was born in Jamaica - was actually Black. That left donors and aides baffled and alarmed, according to a Republican donor, an operative at a pro-Trump super PAC spending group, and a Trump-supporting union leader.

Three days later, Trump attacked Georgia's Republican governor, Brian Kemp, at a rally, possibly alienating a popular figure in a battleground state where Trump could need help mobilizing voters to the polls.

Trump has also been firing off multiple, convoluted missives on his Truth Social app, including one on Tuesday in which he mused about Biden returning to the top of the ticket.

In the spring and earlier this summer, as public opinion polls showed Trump expanding his lead over Biden in battleground states, the former president did events in what had been considered safe Democratic areas – Minnesota, Virginia, even New York City – in a bid to expand the electoral map.

By last Saturday, Trump was back to basics: campaigning in Georgia, where polls showed the race had tightened after Harris' entry.

The state is going to be fiercely competitive, with Trump clinging to a slight edge thanks to support from some Black voters, said Mark Rountree, a Georgia pollster who is not affiliated with either campaign.

And Trump is getting outspent on campaign ads in battleground states, according to AdImpact, a firm that tracks campaign ad spending.

Harris and affiliated committees have outspent Trump and his allies $112 million to $70.1 million on ads since July 22, according to AdImpact data, although Trump has matched Harris' outlays in Pennsylvania, perhaps the most crucial state for each side.

In terms of future reservations of TV air time, Harris and her allies are swamping Trump $172.4 million to $71.8 million as of this week, the firm said, although those figures are likely to change in the coming weeks.

Perhaps most telling was the Trump campaign's significant new ad buy in North Carolina, which had looked likely to remain Republican until Harris' ascension energized Black and young voters.

"They're putting money in there now in the hope she decides to leave it alone," said Justin Sayfie, a Republican lobbyist and Trump fundraiser.

However, the Harris campaign is already up on the air in the state.

(Reporting by Gram Slattery, Nathan Layne, and Alexandra Ulmer. Additional reporting by Tim Reid and James Oliphant; editing by Ross Colvin and Suzanne Goldenberg.)

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