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"Overall, we do not believe the global economy is on the verge
of a sudden downshift," said Amrita Sen, director of research at
Energy Aspects, noting that disappointing Chinese growth and
signs of a U.S. slowdown had made policymakers hesitant in both
countries.
"I don't think what we saw on Monday is a one-off," Sen told the
Reuters Global Markets Forum, referring to the brutal sell-off
earlier this week triggered by an unwinding of yen-funded
trades. "We will likely get a few more rounds of macro
meltdowns, but oil's own fundamentals are stable."
Global shares extended gains on Friday to erase nearly all their
losses from this week's sell-off. Brent prices, on course for a
weekly gain of more than 3%, had begun the week down more than
18% from their April highs.
Energy Aspects forecasts 2024 oil demand growing at 1 million
barrels per day (bpd) over last year, which she said was a
similar rate to previous years of global slowdowns.
In the near-term, the market will stay focused on demand, which
will not come "roaring back" thanks to the weak Chinese economy,
she said.
In 2025, crude supply from countries not in the Organization of
the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to grow by 1.4
million bpd year-on-year, while demand is set to increase by 1.2
million bpd, she said.
If non-OPEC supply disappoints, there would be enough stockpile
to provide cover, Sen added.
"OPEC may choose to delay bringing back the barrels they have
outlined, but either way it is a balanced market with ample
spare capacity," Sen said.
(Join GMF, a chat room hosted on LSEG Messenger: )
(Reporting by Divya Chowdhury in Mumbai; Editing by Richard
Chang)
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