European stocks rise ahead of US inflation data

[August 14, 2024]  By Elizabeth Howcroft

PARIS (Reuters) - European stocks edged up on Wednesday and the dollar was near a one-week low after data pointing to softer inflation helped markets recover from last week's meltdown, while traders hoped that U.S. inflation data later in the day would also be benign.

New Zealand's central bank cut interest rates for the first time in four years, and signalled more monetary policy easing to come. The move sparked a sell-off in the Kiwi dollar, which was down around 1% on the day.

The Japanese yen and the Nikkei wobbled after Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said he would step down next month, but Asian shares still rose overall as markets recovered from the recent rout.

At 1041 GMT, the MSCI World Equity index was up 0.3% on the day, at its highest in 12 days.

Wall Street futures were little changed, but slightly higher on the day, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both up 0.1%.
 

Europe's STOXX 600 was up 0.3% on the day, while London's FTSE 100 was up 0.4% after data showed British inflation rose less than expected in July.

UBS shares were up around 3.1% after the bank reported $1.1 billion of net profit in the April to June quarter, beating analysts' forecasts.

Last week's global market sell-off was widely attributed to fears of a U.S. recession, which left traders betting that the U.S. Federal Reserve would need to cut interest rates quickly to spur growth. Stocks and bond markets were also affected by traders quitting the yen carry trade, in response to the yen getting stronger following a surprise Bank of Japan rate hike.

U.S. data since then has eased recession fears. Stocks jumped on Tuesday after U.S. producer price data pointed to inflation cooling, which supported speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut rates soon.

U.S. CPI data is due at 1230 GMT (8:30 a.m. ET) and traders hope it supports the idea of Fed rate cuts. Markets are pricing in a roughly 51.5% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut, and a 48.5% chance of a 25 basis point cut, at the Fed's next meeting in September.

A man looks at an electronic stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan August 2, 2024. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

"Markets are less in panic mode," said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at investment firm St. James's Place.

Still, he said, traders may be getting ahead of themselves in their rate cut expectations.

"The market is being far too aggressive in those Fed cuts, particularly when you have hawkish leaning Fed officials saying they are looking for more data to support cuts."

Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday he wanted to see "a little more data" before he's ready to support lowering interest rates.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was a touch lower at 3.8333%, with yields having fallen after Tuesday's U.S. producer price data.

European government bond yields were a slightly higher on the day, with the German 10-year yield up by 2 basis points at 2.198%.

The dollar index was little changed at 102.46, while the euro was up 0.2% on the day and earlier hit as high as $1.102875, its strongest since Jan. 2

In commodities, Brent crude futures were down 0.4% at $80.39 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.5% to $77.99.

Gold prices were 0.4% higher at $2,474.62 an ounce.

(Reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft; Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by David Evans and Mark Potter)

[© 2024 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.]
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.  Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content.