Rate cut hopes buoy futures ahead of fresh data

[August 15, 2024]  (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures edged higher on Thursday ahead of another batch of economic data, after benign consumer inflation figures reinforced hopes for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates next month.

Most megacap and growth stocks were up in premarket trading. Nvidia was an outlier with a 0.5% decline.

The S&P 500 on Wednesday extended its winning streak to five sessions, boosted by softer inflation data, but the Nasdaq barely scraped into positive territory as Alphabet and some megacap stocks weighed.

Investors have kept a cautious eye on this week's data releases - the last set of economic indicators before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers a much-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole next week.

On tap today is the Commerce Department's retail sales data at 8:30 a.m. ET, which is expected to show a 0.3% growth in retail sales in July on a monthly basis. Ahead of that, Walmart's quarterly results is expected to shed more light on the health of the American consumer.

"The bounce back in auto sales is expected to support the headline number, but the market will focus on the retail sales control group," said an ING note.

"The consensus is 0.1% MoM and any MoM decline here (-0.1%, -0.2% are possible) could weigh on the short end of the US rates curve and the dollar."

Initial jobless claims for the week ended Aug. 10 are forecast to increase marginally to 235,000 from 233,000 a week earlier.

Traders currently see a 64.5% chance of Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in September from being evenly split between a 25- and a 50-basis-point cut before the inflation data, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 8, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

Comments from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, due at 1:10 p.m. ET, will be closely eyed for any clues on the Fed's interest-rate path.

Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told the Financial Times that he is open to an interest rate cut in September, adding that the U.S. central bank can't "afford to be late" to ease monetary policy.

At 05:01 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 80 points, or 0.2%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 38.5 points, or 0.2% and S&P 500 E-minis were up 6.25 points, or 0.11%.

Among other movers, Cisco Systems rose 6.5% after it forecast better-than-expected first-quarter revenue on Wednesday and said it was cutting 7% of its global workforce.

Nike climbed 3.0% as billionaire investor William Ackman built new stakes in sportswear company and investment management company Brookfield during the second quarter.

(Reporting by Shubham Batra in Bengaluru; Editing by Saumyadeb Chakrabarty)

[© 2024 Thomson Reuters. All rights reserved.]
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.  Thompson Reuters is solely responsible for this content.