Illinois Republicans see Harris’ polling surge as ‘honeymoon period’ that’s destined to end

[August 16, 2024]  By PETER HANCOCK
& HANNAH MEISEL
Capitol News Illinois
[e-mail]

SPRINGFIELD – Illinois Republicans say they are still as united about the upcoming election as they were at their national convention in Milwaukee last month, despite surge of enthusiasm for the Democrats’ new presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris.

“Republicans are ready,” state party chair Kathy Salvi told reporters at the Illinois State Fair Thursday. “People in general, the regular mom-and-pop independent voters, people are energized, and they're coming out in droves, and they're voting. Either they're Democrats who are turning Republican and voting and working with us, or they're people who never voted before, and they're coming out of the woodwork.”

Several people attending the Republican Day festivities at the fair acknowledged the dynamics of the 2024 race have changed markedly since the GOP convention.

At that time, former President Donald Trump was leading in most national polls and in key battleground states, and Republicans were euphoric after he survived an assassination attempt just two days earlier. Meanwhile, many Democrats were openly questioning whether their presumptive nominee, 81-year-old President Joe Biden, was capable of serving another term in light of his weak debate performance against Trump in June.

Then, on July 21, Biden bowed to pressure from within his own party and dropped out of the race, endorsing Harris to take his place. Almost immediately, she consolidated support and secured enough delegates to the upcoming Democratic National Convention in Chicago to win the nomination.

Since then, Harris has drawn huge crowds at campaign rallies, and polls have shown her pulling even, or even slightly ahead of Trump.

But Republicans at the fair insisted Harris’ surge in popularity will be short-lived. Among them was the keynote speaker at the rally, Matthew Whitaker, an Iowa native who served briefly as acting attorney general during the first Trump administration.

“We're in a honeymoon period with Kamala Harris,” Whitaker said. “The left is so excited that they have a candidate with a pulse. That's a fairly low bar. I mean, we have a president in Donald Trump that not only has a pulse, he has a fire inside of him to save this country.”

Earlier in the day, at a breakfast meeting of the Republican State Central Committee in downtown Springfield, Illinois House Republican Leader Tony McCombie, of Savanna, dismissed the idea that the switch from Biden to Harris would help Democrats in down-ballot races.

“I think you'd want to ask Cori Bush how it affected her,” she said, referring to the Democratic congresswoman from St. Louis who backed Harris then lost her seat Aug. 6 in Missouri’s Democratic primary.

McCombie predicted that Harris will get another bump in polling numbers after next week’s convention, but that her popularity would fade in the fall campaign when she comes under closer scrutiny.

“Once you actually get her in front of this (a gaggle of reporters), actually have her have the courage to do something like this, she won't be able to handle it, and everybody will see who she really is,” McCombie said.

Republican Day at the fair is also a traditional time for the state party to rally support for its candidates in races further down the ballot. That includes seats in the General Assembly, where Republicans currently hold only 40 of 118 seats in the House and 19 of 59 seats in the Senate.

Senate Republican Leader John Curran, of Downers Grove, said in an interview he thinks the GOP can regain seats in suburban areas where it has lost support in recent elections. But he said candidates must focus on local issues and stay away from national issues like abortion rights.

“I don't sense suburban voters are one-issue voters,” he said. “Regardless of where they're at on the topic of abortion, they're also vitally concerned about cost of living, economic factors, crime and public safety, and corruption in this state. … Ultimately, we constantly coach and manage our candidates to stick to local issues, and that's what we're doing.”

New ILGOP Chair Kathy Salvi speaks to attendees of Republican Day at the Illinois State Fair on Thursday. Salvi, a mother of six, told the party that “we need a little mothering.” (Capitol News Illinois photo by Jerry Nowicki)

McCombie said it makes “no difference” to GOP chances that Harris is atop the ticket, and she’s betting on voters wanting a change from one-party rule in Illinois.

“Are we better off under Democrat rule in Illinois?” McCombie shouted to the crowd gathered at the GOP rally at the state fairgrounds, who shouted “no!” in response.

Though Republicans only had moderate success in making longtime Democratic Illinois House Speaker Michael Madigan into a punching bag — until a federal criminal investigation into his inner circle bolstered their yearslong effort in 2020 — McCombie said voters should remember Speaker Emanuel “Chris” Welch when they go to vote.

“I would argue that some of the most damaging policies have come to Illinois since January of 2021,” she said, referring to when Welch took the reins. “We are not dealing with a Democrat party of 1992. We are dealing with a party who wants to destroy small business, hurt our most vulnerable and make families feel that they need to be reliant on government for everything.”

During Democratic fair festivities on Wednesday, Welch said he wanted to increase his Democratic caucus from an already record-high 78 members. McCombie warned her fellow party faithful to look at the past to understand how Democrats’ supermajorities got so large.

“How did they do that? We let them. We got lazy,” she said. “We believe the lie that our voice and our vote does not matter, but it matters.”

Though 2024 is a rare election cycle with no statewide races to buoy down-ballot candidates with a unified message — or the money and attention that comes with high-profile contests — McCombie has said she is concentrating on five House seats she’s hoping to flip in November.

That includes races in Chicago’s suburbs, as well as areas of the Metro East and central Illinois.

GOP leaders are hopeful about their chances in the 91st House District, which encompasses Bloomington-Normal westward to East Peoria, where Desi Anderson is running against first-term Rep. Sharon Chung, D-Bloomington.

Anderson, who unsuccessfully ran for the state Senate against a longtime Democratic member in 2022, told Capitol News Illinois that her experience owning a wedding and conference venue in rural Heyworth not only activated her as a candidate but also helps her relate to voters.

But beyond issues like high property taxes, Anderson said she’s been surprised at how much concern she’s heard from voters about illegal immigration when knocking on doors.

“I think a lot of the communities are concerned of, ‘How do we have safe streets? How do we provide for our own folks here in our own community, when we (already) have a housing issue?’” she said.

Republicans’ hopes of picking up a seat in Madison County across the river from St. Louis are still up in the air. The Illinois State Board of Elections will decide next week whether GOP candidate Jay Keeven can appear on the November ballot against Democratic state Rep. Katie Stuart, D-Edwardsville.

In June, a Springfield judge blocked state elections officials from enforcing a law passed by Democrats barring “slated” candidates from the ballot if they did not run in their party’s primary. But Keeven was not one of the 14 named plaintiffs on the lawsuit and may still be excluded from the judge’s ruling.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding his race, Republican operatives say Keeven has been knocking doors for months since he filed paperwork to run for the House seat in May.

Capitol News Illinois is a nonprofit, nonpartisan news service covering state government. It is distributed to hundreds of newspapers, radio and TV stations statewide. It is funded primarily by the Illinois Press Foundation and the Robert R. McCormick Foundation, along with major contributions from the Illinois Broadcasters Foundation and Southern Illinois Editorial Association.