LDN - Business

Shares gain, oil slips as Fed readies rate cuts

[August 22, 2024] By Tom Wilson and Tom Westbrook

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -European stocks ticked higher, oil fell for a fifth straight day and the dollar remained subdued on Thursday after Federal Reserve minutes signaled U.S. interest rate cuts were set to begin in a few weeks' time.

The minutes said the "vast majority" of policymakers felt that, if data came in as expected, a September cut was likely to be appropriate - validating market expectations.

Stocks, after a phenomenal rebound from early-month lows plumbed after a bout of volatility, strove for gains.

European shares opened slightly higher, with the STOXX 600 index gaining 0.3%, helped by retail stocks, after a subdued session for Asian indexes.

Oil prices fell, however. At $75.96 a barrel, Brent futures were near the year's low, having lost nearly 6% in August so far as China's demand outlook weakens and looming rate cuts signal an expectation of a U.S. slowdown. [O/R]

A glut of economic data from major economies is due later in the day, including consumer confidence data for the eurozone and U.S. PMI and initial jobless claims figures.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was mostly flat.

"What we have seen since yesterday is just a confirmation of broad expectations of Fed rate cuts in September," said Sandrine Perret, multi-asset portfolio manager at Unigestion.

Wall Street futures gauges pointed towards gains of about 0.7%.

The dollar index, was little changed at 101.21. It dipped to 100.92 overnight for the first time this year.

The euro, which has made strong gains this month, fell 0.2% to $1.1128 after weaker-than-expected PMI data from Germany. The survey suggests Germany's economy, which unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, has not picked up pace going into the second half of the year.

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A man walks under an electronic screen showing Japan's Nikkei share price index inside a conference hall in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

DOLLAR DOWNTREND

Lower U.S. rates would give central banks around the world room to move. On Thursday the Bank of Korea opened the door to a cut in October, while Bank Indonesia has lined up cuts in the fourth quarter.

Still, rates and currency markets see a U.S. easing cycle as having further to run than other countries.

Interest rate futures markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point cut from the Fed next month, with a 1/3 chance of a 50-bp cut. They project 222 bps of U.S. easing by the end of 2025, against 163 bps for Europe.

Ten-year Treasury yields were broadly steady at 3.80% while two-year yields held at 3.93%.

The British pound bought $1.3095 and hit a more than one-year high of $1.3119 on Wednesday. [GBP/]

Investors said the dollar was facing a downtrend.

"The unequivocal signal from the (Fed) minutes has been the catalyst for the latest leg down in the U.S. dollar," said National Australia Bank's head of currency strategy, Ray Attrill.

"It is likely that the break above $1.30 on cable looks sustainable," he said, using a nickname for the sterling/dollar pair. "And similarly for the euro ... we're talking about potentially a $1.10-$1.15 range in coming weeks."

(Reporting by Tom Wilson in London and Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Shri Navaratnam, Tom Hogue and Christina Fincher)

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