Stocks surge while Treasury yields, dollars retreat after Fed signals lower rates

[August 24, 2024]  By Lawrence Delevingne

(Reuters) -Wall Street and global shares jumped on Friday toward all-time highs, while Treasury yields slumped and the dollar languished, after a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the United States would soon begin interest rate cuts.

Powell, in remarks on Friday at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, said "the time has come" to cut interest rates as rising risks to the job market left no room for further weakness and inflation was in reach of the Fed's 2% target, offering an explicit endorsement of an imminent policy easing.

"Powell gave the market just enough dovishness to support the market while avoiding the potential pitfall of inducing fear," Carl Ludwigson, managing director at Bel Air Investment Advisors, said in an email.

On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.14%, to 41,175, the S&P 500 gained 1.15%, to 5,634 - near an all-time high - and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.47%, to 17,877.

Europe's broad STOXX 600 index rose around 0.5%, its highest level in over three weeks and clocking a weekly advance for the third straight week. Asian shares outside Japan had nudged down 0.1%, but Japan's Nikkei gained 0.4% as investors digested inflation data and remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda flagging a willingness to raise interest rates if the economy and inflation turn out as forecast.

That left MSCI's all-country world index up about 1.1%, and with early August's turmoil in the rear view mirror, just above its mid-July all-time peak.

Traders increased bets for a bigger rate cut in September following Powell's speech, with the fed funds futures now pricing in a 37% chance of a 50 basis point cut next month, up from about 25% late on Thursday. Traders are also pricing in about 106 bps of cuts by the end of the year.

"The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," Powell said in his speech.

U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board.

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 7, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid//File Photo

The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 5.9 basis points to 3.803%, from 3.862% late on Thursday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 9.7 basis points to 3.9132%, from 4.01% late on Thursday.

Its German equivalent was steady at 2.226%. [GVD/EUR]

The dollar turned lower and sterling rose to its highest in more than two years on Friday. [FRX/]

The euro gained to $1.1189, up 0.7% on the day, hitting a one-year high.

The Japanese yen strengthened, with the dollar down 1.36% at 144.27 after the Fed news and Bank of Japan Governor Ueda's comments on rates.

Data out early in the day showed Japan's core inflation accelerated for a third straight month, but a slowdown in demand-drive price gains suggest no urgency for any immediate rate hikes.

"FX is a relative game, so the expectation for the Fed to join the other major banks soon in cutting rates is driving the dollar lower," said Uto Shinohara, managing director and senior investment strategist at Mesirow in Chicago.

Oil prices jumped more than 2%, rebounding after losses earlier in the week on swelling U.S. crude stocks and a weakening demand outlook in China. [O/R]

Gold prices added about 1.1% to $2,510 an ounce, near the record high of $2,513 hit just on Tuesday.

(Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne in Boston, Alun John in London and Stella Qiu in Sydney. Editing by Chizu Nomiyama, Susan Fenton, Nick Zieminski and Jonathan Oatis)

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