LDN - Business

Gold, oil come off boil as Middle East risks, US rates in focus

[August 27, 2024] By Iain Withers

LONDON (Reuters) -Gold prices were just shy of a record peak and oil prices levelled off on Tuesday after a surge over the past week, as investors sought safety amid geopolitical risks and looked ahead to Nvidia earnings and U.S. inflation data later this week.

European stocks were broadly flat, following a late rally in Japan's Nikkei index. Global stock indexes were little changed overall, with forecast-beating profit from the world's biggest listed miner BHP helping to prop up sentiment.

U.S. S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were both flat.

Gold hovered above $2,500 per ounce on expectations of imminent U.S. rate cuts and lingering concerns about the Middle East conflict, exacerbated by a major missile exchange between Israel and Hezbollah on Sunday.

Middle East tensions - along with concerns about a potential shutdown of Libyan oil fields - had led to a surge in oil prices of more than 7% over the previous three sessions. However, that rally lost steam on Tuesday, with a slight dip in prices. [O/R]

Expectations for faster interest rate cuts in the United States have been a key driver of market moves, after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said on Friday the central bank was ready to start cutting rates.

"It would be a real shock not to get a (Fed) rate cut in September," said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Group, adding an initial 25 basis point cut was most likely.

"It was also interesting that he didn't really push against the market expectations of 100 plus basis points of rate cuts between now and year-end," Miller added.

The dollar index was just off a one-year low at 100.83, while the euro and pound nudged towards multi-month highs versus the greenback. [FRX/]

A key measure of U.S. inflation due on Friday could further influence market perceptions of how quickly the Fed will act.

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A man walks under an electronic screen showing Japan's Nikkei share price index inside a conference hall in Tokyo, Japan June 14, 2022. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Investors were also on edge ahead of Nvidia's earnings report on Wednesday, where anything short of a stellar forecast from the chipmaker could jolt investor confidence in the AI-fuelled rally.

"I think Nvidia will take more importance" than the inflation data, said Michaël Nizard, head of multi-asset at investor Edmond de Rothschild.

"We know that the pace of inflation is going well. We don't know what could be the guidance for this big, big actor in artificial intelligence. This could be a bump for the market."

MSCI's all-country index of stocks <.MIWD00000PUS > was broadly unchanged on the day at 829.75.

Also keeping sentiment in check was the move by Canada, following the lead of the United States and European Union, to impose a 100% tariff on imports of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25% tariff on imported steel and aluminium from China.

Oil prices took a breather, with Brent crude futures 0.6% lower at $80.95 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures eased 0.7% to $76.89 a barrel.

(Reporting by Iain Withers in London, Additional reporting by Dhara Ranasinghe in London and Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Christina Fincher and Mark Potter)

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