China's exports slow, imports decline in November, falling below forecasts

[December 10, 2024]  By ZEN SOO

HONG KONG (AP) — China’s exports slowed in November and its imports declined, falling below forecasts and underscoring potential weakness in trade at a time when its leaders are striving to boost the economy after the shocks of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Customs data Tuesday showed exports grew 6.7% from a year earlier, down from a 12.7% increase in October. Analysts had estimated that exports had risen more than 8%.

Imports fell 3.9% from a year earlier, reflecting weak demand from industries and consumers.

With exports outpacing imports, China’s trade surplus rose to $97.4 billion.

The report came a day after Beijing pledged to loosen monetary policy and provide more support for the world’s No. 2 economy.

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to slap tariffs of 60% or more on imports of Chinese goods, complicating Beijing's efforts by threatening an area of the economy that has performed relatively well while the property sector remains in the doldrums and consumer spending remains fragile.

Some analysts say that the latest setbacks are likely to be temporary.

“We expect exports to accelerate again in the coming months, supported by gains in export competitiveness and exporters front-running tariffs,” Zichun Huang of Capital Economics said in a note.

“Import volumes declined last month, but they are likely to recover in the short run as accelerated fiscal spending boosts demand for industrial commodities,” she said.

Aerial view of cranes and a ship at a container terminal in Qingdao city in east China's Shandong province Tuesday, Dec. 10, 2024. (Chinatopix Via AP)

The effects of tariffs will likely only be felt in the middle of 2025, Huang wrote.

Exports to the U.S. grew 8% in November compared to the same period last year, while outbound goods to the European Union rose 7.2%.

However, shipments to Russia fell 2.6% year-on-year compared to October, when exports to Russia rose 27%. The decline comes several months after the U.S. imposed secondary sanctions on goods deemed to support Russia's military operations, including some Chinese firms that the U.S. accused of helping Moscow circumvent sanctions.

In another sign of slack demand, consumer inflation in November was a lower-than-expected 0.2%, according to data released Monday, down from 0.3% the month before mainly due to lower food prices.

But late last month, an official survey by the National Bureau of Statistics showed China's factory activity expanding for a second consecutive month in November, rising to 50.3, the highest figure reported in seven months. A reading above 50 suggests growth while below 50 represents a contraction.

The revival in factory orders may also reflect efforts to beat higher tariffs, analysts said.

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