Fantasy plays: Players to start and sit for NFL Week 16

 

[December 18, 2024]  By DORIAN COLBERT of RosterWatch

Roster decisions can have big implications at this time of the fantasy football season, but that shouldn’t stop you from taking a chance on these players with outlooks that are more uncertain. Ride this wave of starts into the fantasy championship.

Quarterbacks
Start: Aaron Rodgers, Jets vs Rams

Rodgers has been solid as of late. He is riding his best three-game stretch this season into a top-10 matchup with the Rams, who have been struggling against opposing QBs recently.

Other locks:

—Baker Mayfield at Cowboys

—Kyler Murray at Panthers

—Josh Allen vs Patriots

Avoid: Russell Wilson, Steelers at Ravens

Wilson struggled against Baltimore in Week 11, throwing for 205 yards and an interception. He might also be without his top option, George Pickens (hamstring) for another week, making his job that much harder.

Running backs
Start: Jerome Ford, Browns at Bengals

Ford is the top option in the Cleveland backfield, now that Nick Chubb is out for the season. Putting up more than 100 yards of offense and a TD against the top run defense in football last week, Ford is in a prime spot to do damage against a middling Bengals front.

Other locks:

—Rico Dowdle vs Buccaneers

—Bucky Irving at Cowboys

—Chuba Hubbard vs Cardinals

Avoid: Javonte Williams, Broncos at Chargers

Williams has only produced 50 or more yards of offense once in his past five games, despite Bo Nix playing more than well enough to open up the run game. Mired in a three-way timeshare for much of the season, Williams may not have to compete with Jaleel McLaughlin (quad) this week, but even if he doesn’t, he’ll still have to deal with rookie Audric Estime. The matchup with the Chargers isn’t ideal either, as they’re a top-five run defense going into Week 16.

Wide receivers
Start: Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars at Raiders

Thomas Jr. has been matchup-proof, putting up WR1 numbers against the elite secondaries of the Jets and the Titans in recent weeks. He’s also been QB-proof, as he’s continued to thrive with Mac Jones under center for the Jaguars. His opponent this week, the Raiders, are stout against the pass, but they’re not as good as the aforementioned teams. Coming off his first two-touchdown performance of his rookie season, Thomas Jr. is a lock to keep the fantasy points flowing.

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers (8) throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 15, 2024, in Jacksonville, Fla. (AP Photo/Phelan M. Ebenhack)

Other locks:

—Jakobi Meyers vs Jaguars

—Courtland Sutton at Chargers

—Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs Vikings

Avoid: Rome Odunze, Bears vs Lions

Odunze has been boom or bust in recent weeks, catching 2 TDs in Week 14, before having two catches for 39 yards in Week 15. His game log indicates that he does his best work against better secondaries, which makes sense as he’s the third option in the passing game. In instances where Keenan Allen and DJ Moore are covered, Odunze tends to thrive. This week won’t be one of those situations, as the Bears are facing a bottom 10 Lions secondary.

Tight ends
Start: Brenton Strange, Jaguars at Raiders

It seems counterintuitive to put two Jaguars on this list, but Strange, along with Thomas Jr. has been getting targets for the Jaguars, even with Mac Jones under center. In fact, Jones being under center is likely a primary reason that the tight end position is thriving for Jacksonville, as they usually serve as a safety blanket for young and/or inexperienced QBs. Strange was targeted 12 times in Week 15 as the fill-in for Evan Engram (shoulder), who is on IR for the remainder of the season, and he caught 11 of those passes for 73 yards. In a top-five matchup with the Raiders this week, Strange could be a top target getter for a second consecutive week.

Other locks:

—Jonnu Smith vs 49ers

—Pat Freiermuth at Ravens

—Sam LaPorta at Bears

Avoid: Grant Calcaterra, Eagles at Commanders

Calcaterra is not as productive as Dallas Goedert, and his lackluster fantasy output whenever Goedert is out indicates that. Sure, he found the end zone in Week 14, but he only had 16 yards and in Week 15 he only had a single target. When Goedert isn’t around, it just means more targets for AJ Brown and Devonta Smith.

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