What Trump's decision to wade into spending fight tells us about the next 4 years

[December 23, 2024]  By CHRIS MEGERIAN, STEPHEN GROVES, JILL COLVIN and JOSH BOAK

WASHINGTON (AP) — After days of threats and demands, Donald Trump had little to show for it once lawmakers passed a budget deal in the early hours of Saturday, narrowly averting a pre-Christmas government shutdown.

The president-elect successfully pushed House Republicans to jettison some spending, but he failed to achieve his central goal of raising the debt limit. It demonstrated that despite his decisive election victory and frequent promises of retribution, many members of his party are still willing to openly defy him.

Trump’s decision to inject himself into the budget debate a month before his inauguration also showed that he remains more adept at blowing up deals than making them, and it foreshadowed that his second term will likely be marked by the same infighting, chaos and brinksmanship that characterized his first.

“Stay tuned. Buckle up. Strap in,” said Rep. Steve Womack, R-Ark., a senior appropriator.

A glance at Trump’s agenda shows a cascade of opportunities for similar showdowns in the years to come. He wants to extend tax cuts that he signed into law seven years ago, slash the size of government, increase tariffs on imports and crack down on illegal immigrants. Many of those efforts will need congressional buy-in.

For many of Trump’s supporters, disruption could be its own goal. Thirty-seven percent of those who voted for him this year said they wanted “complete and total upheaval,” according to AP VoteCast, a broad survey of more than 120,000 voters. An additional 56% said they wanted “substantial change.”

But the past few days made clear the difficulty Trump could face in quickly fulfilling his goals, especially with Republicans holding only thin majorities in the House and the Senate. Some lawmakers already seem weary of the apparent lack of a unified strategy.

Sen. Kevin Cramer, R-N.D., said the budget battle was “a valuable lesson in how to get our act together.”

“There are no layups and it gets more complicated," he said.

How Trump's demands fell flat
The trouble started when top lawmakers released a copy of the bill, known as a continuing resolution, that was required to keep the federal government functioning until March. It wasn't the president-elect but Elon Musk, the world's richest man and a Trump confidant, who first began whipping up opposition to the legislation on social media by calling it excessive spending.

Trump eventually waded into the fight. He ordered Republicans to cancel the bipartisan deal they had made with Democrats. And he demanded they increase the debt limit — the cap on how much the government can borrow — in hopes of preventing that thorny issue from coming up while he is in charge of the government.

He ratcheted up the pressure even as his demands shifted. First he wanted to eliminate the debt limit altogether. Then he wanted to suspend it until 2027. Then he floated an extension until 2029.

If there was a shutdown, Democratic President Joe Biden would take the blame, Trump insisted.

“All Republicans, and even the Democrats, should do what is best for our Country, and vote “YES” for this Bill, TONIGHT!” Trump wrote Thursday, before a vote on a version of the bill that included a higher debt limit.

Instead, 38 Republicans voted no. It was a stunning brush-off to Trump, whose power over his party has at times seemed near-absolute.

"Without this, we should never make a deal," he wrote on Truth Social, his social media site.

If he didn’t get what he wanted, Trump said, there should be a government shutdown. He also said members of his own party would face primary challenges if they refused to go along, saying “Republican obstructionists have to be done away with." He singled out Rep. Chip Roy of Texas by name and with insults.

But in the end, lawmakers left out that debt ceiling increase, and a final deal passed early Saturday.

Musk and other Trump allies tried to frame it as a win because the final legislation was significantly slimmed down and omitted unpopular items such as a pay raise for members of Congress. Charlie Kirk, the prominent conservative activist, wrote on X that Trump “is already running Congress before he takes office!”

President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with the House GOP conference, Nov. 13, 2024, in Washington. (Allison Robbert/Pool Photo via AP, File)

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., said he had been in “constant contact” with Trump, who, he added was "certainly happy about this outcome.”

If Trump agreed, he didn’t say so himself.

After days of frequent social media messages, Trump again went silent on Friday. He did not offer a reaction to the final vote or issue any statements. Instead, he went golfing at his Florida resort.

Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for Trump, said the president-elect helped prevent an original deal “full of Democrat pork and pay raises for members of Congress.”

“In January, President Trump and DOGE will continue this important mission to cut the waste out of Washington, one bill at a time,” she said. DOGE is a reference to the Department of Government Efficiency, an advisory panel that will be led by Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.

More clashes to come
The circus-like atmosphere of the funding fight was reminiscent of Trump’s first term. Back then, one budget standoff led to a government shutdown when Trump demanded money for his U.S.-Mexico border wall. After 35 days — the longest shutdown in history — he agreed to a deal without the money he wanted.

It was a political low point for Trump, and 60% of Americans blamed him for the shutdown, according to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll at the time.

Trump didn't stop trying to bend Republicans to his will then. He's certainly not going to do so now.

He is cranking up the pressure on his own party over his Cabinet picks, pushing reluctant Republican senators to get on board with some of his most controversial choices, such as anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary and then-Fox News host Pete Hegseth as defense secretary.

The spending debates next year seem certain to further test Trump's influence in the House. Many conservatives view the rapid growth of the federal debt as an existential threat to the country that must be addressed. But some Republicans fear a voter backlash if steep cuts are made to federal programs upon which Americans rely.

Concerns about deficit spending could intensify if Trump pushes expensive tax cuts that he promised during the campaign, such as eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security and overtime pay.

He also wants to extend the tax cuts he signed into law in 2017 that are set to expire next year. He has called for further lowering the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, but only for companies that produce in the United States.

Trump has said he will pay for the dips in revenue with aggressive new tariffs that economists warn will lead to higher prices for consumers.

Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, said reducing spending would likely continue to be a gulf between Trump and House Republicans.

“That’s never been really a campaign promise of Trump, but it’s a big priority for House Republicans,” he said.

There was no sense that the animosity was dying down on Saturday. Some Republicans faulted the House leadership for not securing Trump's “blessing" on the original deal. Democrats cast Trump as second fiddle to Musk.

While Trump stayed quiet, Biden announced that he signed the budget legislation.

"This agreement represents a compromise, which means neither side got everything it wanted," he said. “But it rejects the accelerated pathway to a tax cut for billionaires that Republicans sought, and it ensures the government can continue to operate at full capacity.”

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 Boak reported from West Palm Beach, Florida, and Colvin from New York.

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