Pro Picks: Chargers over Patriots is the best bet and Broncos and Vikings will pull off upsets

 

[December 26, 2024]  By ROB MAADDI

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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Playoff berths, draft positioning and more are up for grabs in Week 17.

There’s going to be plenty of football on television this holiday week with the NFL playing games on five out of six days, starting with a doubleheader on Christmas Day that featured four of the AFC’s top five teams.

Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs trounced Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers 29-10 on Wednesday. Then, two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens routed C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans 31-2.

The Bears host the Seahawks on Thursday night and there are three games on Saturday, making Sunday’s schedule light at nine games. The Lions-49ers wrap up the weekend on Monday night.

Pro Picks goes for another winning week.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-6) at New England (3-12)
Line: Chargers minus 4

The Chargers would clinch a wild-card spot with a victory over the Patriots, who battled hard against the Bills. Los Angeles is 9-2 against the spread as favorites. Justin Herbert is 9-0 ATS in the Eastern time zone in his career. The Patriots have lost eight straight home games in December.

BEST BET: CHARGERS: 23-16

Denver (9-6) at Cincinnati (7-8)
Line: Bengals minus 3

Joe Burrow and the Bengals have to win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. They’re favorites for the 12th time this season despite a losing record. The Broncos would clinch a wild-card berth with a win. They’re 11-4 ATS.

UPSET SPECIAL: BRONCOS: 23-22

Seattle (8-7) at Chicago (4-11)
Line: Seahawks minus 3 1/2

The Seahawks have to win to maintain slim playoff hopes. The Bears have lost nine straight. Geno Smith and Jaxon Smith-Njigba should have a big day against Chicago’s pass defense.

SEAHAWKS: 26-20

Arizona (7-8) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6)
Line: Rams minus 6 1/2

A four-game winning streak has the Rams on the verge of securing the NFC West. Los Angeles aims to avenge a lopsided loss to Arizona in Week 2. The Cardinals were eliminated from the playoffs and are reduced to playing spoiler. With Kyren Williams leading the rushing attack, the Rams don’t have to rely on Matthew Stafford’s passing as much.

RAMS: 26-16

New York Jets (4-11) at Buffalo (12-3)
Line: Bills minus 9 1/2

The Bills will know going in if they have a shot at the AFC’s No. 1 seed. If the Chiefs beat the Steelers and lock it up, Buffalo’s main priority will be keeping Josh Allen and everyone healthy. Still, they can rest in Week 18. After a subpar effort against the Patriots, the Bills can’t take Aaron Rodgers and the Jets lightly.

BILLS: 27-16

Las Vegas (3-12) at New Orleans (5-10)
Line: Raiders minus 1

The Raiders already hurt their draft positioning by beating the Jaguars last week. Another win could further knock them down and negatively impact their quest for a franchise quarterback. But coach Antonio Pierce wants to win and the players don’t care about draft slots. The Saints can’t get to the end of the season fast enough.

RAIDERS: 20-16

Carolina (4-11) at Tampa Bay (8-7)
Line: Buccaneers minus 8

The Panthers have embraced the spoiler role and coach Dave Canales will try to derail his former team’s playoff hopes. Bryce Young keeps improving and Chuba Hubbard is having a career year. The Buccaneers would’ve lost to Carolina last month if Hubbard didn’t fumble in overtime. Baker Mayfield and a turnover-prone offense have to overcome a depleted defense that couldn’t stop Cooper Rush and the Cowboys.

BUCCANEERS: 26-20

Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws a pass during the first half an NFL football game against the Los Angeles Chargers, Thursday, Dec. 19, 2024, in Inglewood, Calif. (AP Photo/Eric Thayer)

Tennessee (3-12) at Jacksonville (3-12)
Line: Jaguars minus 1

The winner of this one really loses because it’ll be costly in the race for draft positioning.

TITANS: 19-17

Indianapolis (7-8) at New York Giants (2-13)
Line: Colts minus 7 1/2

The Giants have come too far to lose the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Colts are clinging to slim playoff hopes. Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson combined for 308 yards and four TDs against the Titans. They could have similar results against New York.

COLTS: 27-16

Dallas (7-8) at Philadelphia (12-3)
Line: Eagles minus 9

The Cowboys are left to play for a winning record after being eliminated from the playoff race. The Eagles still need a win to secure the NFC East, but are almost locked into the No. 2 seed. If Jalen Hurts can’t play because of a concussion, Dallas has a shot against Kenny Pickett. Saquon Barkley is 268 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s single-season rushing record. He could have a big day facing the fifth-worst run defense in the NFL.

EAGLES: 24-17

Green Bay (11-4) at Minnesota (13-2)
Line: Packers minus 1

The Vikings are two wins away from the NFC’s No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold. Let that sink in. But those won’t be easy victories. Minnesota has to beat Green Bay and then Detroit on the road to win the NFC North and get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Vikings defeated the Packers 31-29 in Green Bay in September. They’re getting the Packers on short rest off a Monday night rout. The Vikings have been overlooked and underrated. This is a statement game.

VIKINGS: 27-22

Miami (7-8) at Cleveland (3-12)
Line: Dolphins minus 6 1/2

Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins still have slim playoff changes and get an opportunity to win a game in cold weather. A loss helps the Browns hold onto a top-five pick in the draft.

DOLPHINS: 25-16

Atlanta (8-7) at Washington (10-5)
Line: Commanders minus 4

The Falcons regained control of their NFC South hopes when the Buccaneers lost. Now, they have a tough test against the Commanders with Michael Penix Jr. making his second start facing off against Jayden Daniels in another matchup between rookie QBs. Daniels beat Caleb Williams and the Bears earlier this season on a Hail Mary. Washington clinches a playoff berth with a win or a loss by Tampa Bay.

COMMANDERS: 24-23

Detroit (13-2) at San Francisco (6-9)
Line: Lions minus 3 1/2

The Lions aim to avenge their loss in the NFC championship game, though this matchup lost its luster because the 49ers are eliminated from the playoff race. Detroit clinches the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a win if the Packers beat the Vikings. If Minnesota beats Green Bay, the Lions have to beat the Vikings in Week 18 to win the division and secure the top seed so the result against San Francisco won’t matter. In that case, Dan Campbell could choose to rest some of his starters in preparation for a winner-take-all regular-season finale.

LIONS: 26-23
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Last week: 12-4. Against spread: 8-7-1

Overall: Straight up: 170-72. Against spread: 132-106-4.

Prime-time: Straight up: 39-14. Against spread: 29-23-1.

Best Bet: Straight up: 9-7. Against spread: 8-8.

Upset Special: Straight up: 9-7. Against spread: 9-7.

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