Seen from abroad, Pakistan elections disappoint, add to instability
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[February 13, 2024]
By David Brunnstrom, Charlotte Greenfield and Krishn
Kaushik
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Pakistan's election has been remarkable in
producing a result disappointing to most of its foreign partners and
rivals, with little reason for optimism about the government that will
eventually emerge from it, foreign policy analysts said.
Pakistan's two largest political parties have been wrangling over who
will be prime minister after an inconclusive vote last week forced them
to join forces and try to form a coalition in a parliament dominated by
independents.
Neither former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz
(PML-N), nor the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) of Bilawal Bhutto Zardari,
son of assassinated former premier Benazir Bhutto, won enough seats to
form a government alone.
Independent candidates backed by former Prime Minister Imran Khan
represent the largest group, with 93 of the 264 parliamentary seats
declared. That shocked many, who had expected their showing to be
severely dampened by an intense crackdown on Khan and his party.
But Khan cannot become prime minister as he is in jail and his grouping
cannot form a government as they nominally ran as independents as his
party was barred from standing.
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Some foreign policy analysts said the election results likely indicate
voters' protest against perceptions of the country's powerful military's
involvement in politics. But the military denies it interferes in the
country's politics.
That adds to the political instability given the military's strong
historic role in the security and foreign affairs of the nuclear-armed
nation.
"Pakistan has been on a slippery slope for some time but a mild one. The
slope is now much stiffer," said Frederic Grare, a South Asia expert at
the Australian National University's National Security College.
"The military will most likely be able to manage the situation for some
time but ... the political situation is likely to be less and less
stable."
It's a messy scenario no one wanted - not China, Pakistan's main foreign
backer, not India, Pakistan's nuclear-armed neighbor and bitter rival,
nor the United States, which has a reduced stake in Pakistan after
quitting Afghanistan in 2021, but remains concerned about Islamist
militancy as a broader source of instability in the region and beyond,
analysts said.
The prospect of a weak, divided government also raises questions about
whether Pakistan will be able to undertake reforms needed to secure a
vital new International Monetary Fund program later this year.
Last week, the United States, Britain and the European Union separately
expressed concerns about Pakistan's electoral process and urged a probe
into reported irregularities. Pakistan's caretaker prime minister
rejected those allegations.
Possibly the only countries taking any comfort from the outcome will be
some in the Middle East.
"Imran Khan did not have a great relationship with many of Pakistan's
traditional Gulf partners," said Joshua White, a former White House
adviser now at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced
International Studies.
"I think the Saudis and the Emiratis are likely to be relatively
comforted by the that he is locked away and that his party probably ...
will not form government in Pakistan."
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![](../images/021324PIX/news_p1.jpg)
People walk past a banner with a picture of the former Prime
Minister Imran Khan outside the party office of Pakistan
Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), a day after the general election, in Lahore,
Pakistan, February 9, 2024. REUTERS/Navesh Chitrakar
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'MORE CONFUSION AND UNCERTAINTY'
Tamanna Salikuddin, South Asia director at Washington's United
States Institute of Peace think tank, said that rather than
resolving the political crisis Pakistan has been plagued with since
Khan was ousted in 2022, the election "has created more confusion
and uncertainty."
"This election not only reveals the lack of trust that Pakistanis
have in their leaders, but also it is evidence that no institution
or leader has a plan to fix the economy, nor do they have the
political capital to make any of the very difficult and painful
reforms to turn around this failing economy," she said.
"Much of Pakistan's debt is owed to the Chinese, and they will also
be concerned about Pakistan's lack of economic reforms."
China's multi-billion dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is a
key part of Chinese President Xi Jinping's signature Belt and Road
infrastructure initiative.
CPEC has slowed in recent years and a strong mandate by any future
Pakistani government would be needed to cut through red tape and get
it on track.
Elizabeth Threlkeld, a former U.S. diplomat in Pakistan now with the
Stimson Center think tank, said negotiating a new IMF deal was the
number one-priority for a new government.
"Any prolonged political uncertainty would complicate that process
at a time when Pakistan can ill-afford delays," she said.
Former Indian diplomats said the muddled poll result created
difficulties for India's relationship with its nuclear-armed rival
and Delhi was likely to take a "wait-and-watch" approach.
Sharat Sabharwal, India's high commissioner to Pakistan from
2009-2013, said it would also be difficult for a new Pakistani
government to move forward in relations with India.
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"It needs political consensus to be able to move forward on that.
And that consensus will not be there ... if you do something on
India, your opponents are going to immediately accuse you of a
sell-off."
Popular Khan has also publicly accused the U.S. of being part of a
conspiracy to topple his government. Washington has denied being
involved in any such conspiracy and Khan has been convicted over
allegations of leaking diplomatic correspondence between Islamabad
and Washington, which he denies.
"After two years of turmoil, the international community simply
wants a functioning government with some legitimacy in Pakistan,"
said Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's former ambassador to Washington and
a senior fellow at the Hudson Center.
"They want to be able to deal with Pakistan without fear of normal
diplomatic interaction being turned into a conspiracy theory."
(Reporting by David Brunnstrom in Washington, Charlotte Greenfield
in Islamabad and Krishn Kaushik in New Delhi; Editing by Idrees Ali
and Himani Sarkar)
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