Indonesian election quick tallies show Prabowo on course for big win
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[February 14, 2024]
By Stanley Widianto and Dewi Kurniawati
JAKARTA (Reuters) -Unofficial tallies in Indonesia's presidential
election on Wednesday showed a commanding lead for Defence Minister
Prabowo Subianto that could see him win in a single round, in his third
attempt to become the leader of the world's third-largest democracy.
Political veteran Prabowo, a former special forces commander, had about
58% of votes according to four pollsters, based on ballots counted in a
sample of voting stations nationwide. The number of ballots tallied
ranged from about 78% to 93% as of 1233 GMT.
Rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo trailed with about 25% and 17%
respectively, according to independent pollsters conducting "quick
counts", which in previous elections have proven to be accurate.
A preliminary count by the election commission was far slower and showed
Prabowo securing 57.7% of votes with about 6% of ballots recorded.
The contest pitted the two popular former governors against the
pre-election frontrunner Prabowo, who was feared in the 1990s as a top
lieutenant of Indonesia's late strongman ruler Suharto.
Crucially, Prabowo has the tacit backing of the wildly popular incumbent
Joko Widodo, who is betting on his former rival as a continuity
candidate to preserve his legacy, including a role for his son Gibran
Rakabuming Raka as the defence minister's running mate.
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Anies and Ganjar urged the public not to draw conclusions on the outcome
and to await the official result, which is expected by March 20 at the
latest.
'MASSIVE FRAUD'
The campaign teams of Ganjar and Anies said they were investigating
reports of electoral violations, both calling it "structural, systematic
and massive fraud". They did not provide evidence.
To win in a single round, a candidate needs more than 50% of votes cast
and at least 20% of the ballot in half of the country's provinces. If no
candidate wins a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers will
be held in June.
"We are confident this is a single-round victory for Prabowo and
Gibran," said Ahmad Muzani, secretary general of Prabowo's party.
The world's biggest single-day election included nearly 259,000
candidates vying for 20,600 posts across the archipelago of 17,000
islands, but the focus has been squarely on the race to replace Jokowi,
as the incumbent is known, whose influence could determine who takes the
helm of a resource-rich Group of 20 economy of at least $1.3 trillion.
The big unofficial lead will be a boon for Prabowo, who twice lost
presidential elections to Jokowi. The president cannot run again because
of term limits.
Arya Fernandes of Indonesia's Center for Strategic and International
Studies, one of the pollsters, said a run-off round was unlikely given
Prabowo's margin of victory in the unofficial numbers.
"There is a tendency among voters to be drawn to strong leaders," he
said. "The effectiveness of the 'political support' from the incumbent
has been a contributing factor."
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![](../images/021424PIX/news_j84.jpg)
A woman holds her ink-stained finger after casting her vote in South
Tangerang, on the outskirts of Jakarta, Indonesia, February 14,
2024. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana
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INFLUENTIAL LEADER
Jokowi has not explicitly backed a candidate but has made highly
publicised appearances with Prabowo at state events, prompting a
storm of criticism that he has over-reached, unlike predecessors who
were neutral over their succession.
Jokowi was also accused of interfering in a court ruling that
changed eligibility rules, which allowed his son to contest the vice
presidency. Jokowi's loyalists have rejected allegations of
meddling.
Ganjar has campaigned largely on continuing the president's policies
as a member of the same party, but crucially lacked Jokowi's
endorsement. He remained upbeat on Wednesday, but said his camp
would investigate reports of fraud, which he did not detail.
"All the witnesses, all the parties, they are now working and no
struggle is in vain. And of course everyone is still enthusiastic,"
he said.
Anies' camp said it had found many violations and cheating by
village-level and government officials and police. It did not cite
evidence but said its findings had been recorded.
But several political analysts said the margin of Prabowo's lead in
the unofficial counts would make it difficult for his rivals to
challenge the outcome.
"This is an emphatic result that diminishes prospects for legal
challenges and will also provide the Widodo-Prabowo alliance with an
element of affirmation from the public for decision-making in the
months ahead," said political analyst Kevin O'Rourke.
All sides had called for a peaceful election, for which 200,000
security personnel were deployed. Police said no major incidents had
been reported.
Deadly riots broke out after the 2019 election, when Prabowo had
vigorously contested Jokowi's victory.
Since then, Prabowo has transformed his image into a cuddly
grandfatherly figure, attracting a huge youth following on social
media in a country where more than half of the nearly 205 million
electorate is under 40.
Speaking to reporters while in his swimming pool as voting was
underway, the wealthy 72-year-old businessman said he wanted to
defend truth, eliminate corruption and ensure no Indonesians go
hungry.
"I want there to be no 70-year-old people still driving rickshaws.
That's my wish," he said.
(Reporting by Ananda Teresia, Stefanno Sulaiman, Gayatri Suroyo,
Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Christina Munthe, Kate Lamb; Writing by
Martin Petty and Ed Davies; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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