Indonesian election quick tallies show Prabowo on course for big win

[February 14, 2024]  By Stanley Widianto and Dewi Kurniawati

JAKARTA (Reuters) -Unofficial tallies in Indonesia's presidential election on Wednesday showed a commanding lead for Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto that could see him win in a single round, in his third attempt to become the leader of the world's third-largest democracy.

Political veteran Prabowo, a former special forces commander, had about 58% of votes according to four pollsters, based on ballots counted in a sample of voting stations nationwide. The number of ballots tallied ranged from about 78% to 93% as of 1233 GMT.

Rivals Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo trailed with about 25% and 17% respectively, according to independent pollsters conducting "quick counts", which in previous elections have proven to be accurate.

A preliminary count by the election commission was far slower and showed Prabowo securing 57.7% of votes with about 6% of ballots recorded.

The contest pitted the two popular former governors against the pre-election frontrunner Prabowo, who was feared in the 1990s as a top lieutenant of Indonesia's late strongman ruler Suharto.

Crucially, Prabowo has the tacit backing of the wildly popular incumbent Joko Widodo, who is betting on his former rival as a continuity candidate to preserve his legacy, including a role for his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as the defence minister's running mate.

Anies and Ganjar urged the public not to draw conclusions on the outcome and to await the official result, which is expected by March 20 at the latest.

'MASSIVE FRAUD'

The campaign teams of Ganjar and Anies said they were investigating reports of electoral violations, both calling it "structural, systematic and massive fraud". They did not provide evidence.

To win in a single round, a candidate needs more than 50% of votes cast and at least 20% of the ballot in half of the country's provinces. If no candidate wins a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers will be held in June.

"We are confident this is a single-round victory for Prabowo and Gibran," said Ahmad Muzani, secretary general of Prabowo's party.

The world's biggest single-day election included nearly 259,000 candidates vying for 20,600 posts across the archipelago of 17,000 islands, but the focus has been squarely on the race to replace Jokowi, as the incumbent is known, whose influence could determine who takes the helm of a resource-rich Group of 20 economy of at least $1.3 trillion.

The big unofficial lead will be a boon for Prabowo, who twice lost presidential elections to Jokowi. The president cannot run again because of term limits.

Arya Fernandes of Indonesia's Center for Strategic and International Studies, one of the pollsters, said a run-off round was unlikely given Prabowo's margin of victory in the unofficial numbers.

"There is a tendency among voters to be drawn to strong leaders," he said. "The effectiveness of the 'political support' from the incumbent has been a contributing factor."

A woman holds her ink-stained finger after casting her vote in South Tangerang, on the outskirts of Jakarta, Indonesia, February 14, 2024. REUTERS/Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana

INFLUENTIAL LEADER

Jokowi has not explicitly backed a candidate but has made highly publicised appearances with Prabowo at state events, prompting a storm of criticism that he has over-reached, unlike predecessors who were neutral over their succession.

Jokowi was also accused of interfering in a court ruling that changed eligibility rules, which allowed his son to contest the vice presidency. Jokowi's loyalists have rejected allegations of meddling.

Ganjar has campaigned largely on continuing the president's policies as a member of the same party, but crucially lacked Jokowi's endorsement. He remained upbeat on Wednesday, but said his camp would investigate reports of fraud, which he did not detail.

"All the witnesses, all the parties, they are now working and no struggle is in vain. And of course everyone is still enthusiastic," he said.

Anies' camp said it had found many violations and cheating by village-level and government officials and police. It did not cite evidence but said its findings had been recorded.

But several political analysts said the margin of Prabowo's lead in the unofficial counts would make it difficult for his rivals to challenge the outcome.

"This is an emphatic result that diminishes prospects for legal challenges and will also provide the Widodo-Prabowo alliance with an element of affirmation from the public for decision-making in the months ahead," said political analyst Kevin O'Rourke.

All sides had called for a peaceful election, for which 200,000 security personnel were deployed. Police said no major incidents had been reported.

Deadly riots broke out after the 2019 election, when Prabowo had vigorously contested Jokowi's victory.

Since then, Prabowo has transformed his image into a cuddly grandfatherly figure, attracting a huge youth following on social media in a country where more than half of the nearly 205 million electorate is under 40.

Speaking to reporters while in his swimming pool as voting was underway, the wealthy 72-year-old businessman said he wanted to defend truth, eliminate corruption and ensure no Indonesians go hungry.

"I want there to be no 70-year-old people still driving rickshaws. That's my wish," he said.

(Reporting by Ananda Teresia, Stefanno Sulaiman, Gayatri Suroyo, Fransiska Nangoy, Bernadette Christina Munthe, Kate Lamb; Writing by Martin Petty and Ed Davies; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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