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Much of California faces flood risks, but experts said the state
was unlikely to experience damage like that produced by an
atmospheric river two weeks ago. That phenomenon dumped up to a
year's worth of precipitation in some areas, knocked out power
to nearly 1 million customers and killed nine people.
The Sacramento Valley and the agricultural corridor that
includes the cities of Stockton and Modesto may experience
tornadoes on Monday, forecasters said. That is south of the
state's "tornado alley," a 50-mile (80 km) stretch from Chico to
Maysville, north of Sacramento, that is more commonly
vulnerable.
California averages 11 tornadoes a year, but they tend to be
brief and weak compared with the fearsome twisters that
devastate towns in the Midwest or Southeast, said Kate Forrest,
a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Sacramento.
The chance of a tornado in any single 25-mile radius of the
danger zone ranged from 2% to 5%, though the cumulative
likelihood was higher, said Daniel Swain, meteorologist with the
University of California, Los Angeles.
"We're not expecting a Great Plains-level magnitude outbreak by
any means. But this will be potentially a significant event by
California standards," Swain told viewers on his YouTube channel
on Sunday.
The U.S. National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center has
not yet issued a tornado watch but said conditions presented the
possibility a twister at the low end of the Enhanced Fujita
Scale, such as an EF-0 with winds from 65 to 85 mph (105 to 137
kph) or an EF-1 from 86 to 110 mph.
Under similar conditions in twister-prone areas, forecasters
might not even mention it, said Steve Goss, a meteorologist with
the Storm Prediction Center.
"When we say tornado, people think of what they see on TV -
houses demolished, foundations swept clean. But probably the
most you would be looking at in California is a couple of downed
trees, maybe you'll see a few shingles off your roof," Goss
said.
California had experienced extreme drought much of this century
until a parade of atmospheric rivers last year dumped historic
amounts of rain and snow. Experts expect another wet year in
2024 but with warmer temperatures that leave behind less
snowpack.
(Reporting by Daniel Trotta in Carlsbad, California. Editing by
Gerry Doyle)
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