LDN - Business

Stocks set to snap 9-week winning streak on interest rate rethink

[January 05, 2024] By Naomi Rovnick and Kevin Buckland

LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) -Global equities were on course to snap a nine-week winning streak, government bonds sold off, and the dollar was poised for its strongest weekly advance since mid-May, as bets on aggressive central bank rate cuts were rolled back.

MSCI's broadest index of global stocks dipped 0.3%, heading for a 2% decline this week and its biggest weekly drop since late October.

Europe's Stoxx 600 index sank 0.9% and government bond yields in the euro zone and United States rose sharply as prices of the interest rate-sensitive debt securities fell.

The gloom looked set to spread to Wall Street later in the session, with futures indicating the S&P share index would open 0.2% lower, now firmly on course for its first weekly decline since October. Futures tracking the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 dipped 0.4%.

Caution was weighing on markets after euro zone inflation data on Friday showed prices in the currency bloc rose 2.9% year-on-year in December, up from 2.4% in November, easing pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to start cutting borrowing costs from record highs.

U.S. monthly non-farm payrolls figures later in the day could also provide clues about the next moves for the Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut interest rates from a 22-year high in 2024 but closely watches employment data for signs of resurgent inflationary pressures.

Global markets rallied hard at the end of last year as traders priced in about six Fed rate cuts for 2024 and significant monetary easing by the ECB.

"A weak opening to equity markets in 2024 suggests that investors are experiencing a hangover after December's exuberance, waking up to the reality that the optimistic upturn may have been too much, too soon," said Lewis Grant, senior portfolio manager for global equities at Federated Hermes Limited.

Traders on Friday saw around a 60% chance of the Fed starting to cut its funds rate in March from the current range of 5.25% to 5.5%, down from 71% a week ago, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool.

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A man is reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

Fed chair Jay Powell "is only going to go as far as the data is going to let him go, so the question about pricing is whether the six rate cuts that were priced in were too many," added Joe Kalish, chief global strategist at Ned Davis Research.

"They may be too many or not enough, but that will all depend on the data."

The 10-year Treasury yield, which tracks expectations of long-term borrowing costs and rises as the price of the debt security falls, climbed 5 basis points (bps) to 4.034%. This key debt yield has risen by 18 bps this week.

Germany's 10-year bund yield rose 7 bps to 2.17% on Friday, on track to end the week 14 bp higher in its largest weekly rise since mid October.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, added 0.3% to 102.72. For the week, it is up 1.34%.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei bucked the downtrend for global equities, bouncing 0.3% as exporters got a boost from a weaker yen. The dollar rose 0.4% to 145.2 yen.

A deadly New Year's Day earthquake on Japan's coast has also forced off the table wagers that the Bank of Japan might tighten monetary policy this month.

Elsewhere, gold slipped 0.3% to $2,037 per ounce, on track for a 1.3% weekly slide.

Oil markets remained volatile, as expectations of weak demand from China clashed with concerns about Red Sea supply disruptions following attacks on ships by Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis. Brent crude futures were last up 0.9% at $78.28 per barrel, after settling down 0.8% overnight. [O/R]

For the week, the global oil benchmark is up 1.6%.

(Reporting by Kevin Buckland and Naomi Rovnick; Additional reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Ros Russell and Mark Potter)

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