LDN - Business

Stocks slip, dollar gains on rate outlook jitters

[January 16, 2024] By Alun John and Tom Westbrook

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - World shares slipped and the dollar and U.S. bond yields rose on Tuesday as hawkish remarks from central bank policymakers in Europe contributed to markets reducing bets that global interest rate cuts could come as early as March.

Investors were also digesting a raft of other political and geopolitical developments, including Donald Trump securing a resounding win in the first 2024 U.S. Republican presidential contest in Iowa on Monday, and developments in the Red Sea, Gaza and Ukraine.

Europe's STOXX 600 index and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan both dropped to their lowest since mid December, with the broad European benchmark last down about 0.5%, moving further away from a two-year peak at the start of January.

U.S. S&P 500 futures were down 0.5%, suggesting the benchmark will not immediately renew its attempt on a fresh all time high. On Friday, it got as close as 0.3% to a record intraday high hit in early 2022. U.S. markets were closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday. [.N]

Gains in stocks were underpinned by sharp declines in bond yields in November and December as investors brought forward expectations of rate cuts by central banks.

Those have since reversed somewhat and on Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was up 5 bps just above 4%.

Market pricing now reflects around a 70% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March, down from over 80% a week ago, and for the first ECB rate cut to begin in April, with traders having earlier expected March.

Contributing to those revisions, European Central Bank officials have been out in force this week, with hawkish speakers such as Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel on Monday pushing back firmly on expectations of rate cuts.

French central bank Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said Tuesday the ECB's next move would be a rate cut but its timing was an open question.

"Rates are likely to be cut but not as early as markets currently price in," said Guy Miller, chief market strategist and economist, Zurich Insurance Group

"Our view is that inflation will come down towards targets over the course of the year, but in a choppy manner."

Federal Reserve Board Governor Waller's speech on the economic outlook at 1600 GMT, will be closely watched too; markets heartily cheered a shift in his hawkish views in November.

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A closing price of Nikkei index on a stock quotation board is pictured after a ceremony marking the end of trading in 2023 at the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in Tokyo, Japan December 29, 2023. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo

EARNINGS AND GEOPOLITICS

Investors are also keeping a close eye on fourth quarter corporate results. Major U.S. banks kicked off earnings season last Friday reporting lower profits.

"You've got some darlings that are very much loved, that rerated in the last couple of months on the back of that rally as everyone thought we'd hit peak interest rates. The question is, are we happy that earnings are going to meet those expectations?" said Georgina Cooper global equities portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management.

"We saw last year quite a lot of those highly rated names can come off very quickly if they don't meet expectations."

There was also plenty of news around the world to keep on top of, and Yemen's Houthi movement will expand its targets in the Red Sea region to include U.S. ships, an official from the Iran-allied group said on Monday.

Oil, has been supported by the instability in the shipping lane, and Brent was last up 0.6% at 78.64 a barrel. [O/R]

Elsewhere in commodities, iron ore extended falls to touch more than five-week lows in Singapore, as China's Monday decision to skip an expected rate cut unnerved investors, dragging on mining stocks in Europe and Australia as well as the Australian dollar, off 0.9%. [IRONORE/][.AX] [AUD/]

The pound was another underperformer in currency markets down 0.66% against the dollar at $1.2643 after data showed that growth in British wages slowed in the three months through November, supporting the idea that the Bank of England will cut interest rates sharply this year.

That was a contributor, along with the higher U.S. yields , in pushing the dollar index, which racks the greenback against six peers, up 0.52% to a one month high.

Gold dipped to at $2,041 an ounce. [GOL/]

(Reporting by Tom Westbrook and Alun John; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

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