As Trump's rise sparks isolationist worries among US allies, Americans
focus on home turf
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[January 17, 2024]
By Jason Lange
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As Donald Trump strengthens his lead in the race
for the Republican presidential nomination, some U.S. allies are worried
about an American turn toward isolationism, a shift that would reflect
an electorate largely focused on domestic issues.
That was shown in polling in Iowa where Trump scored an overwhelming
victory on Monday, with foreign policy the top issue for just one in 10
participants in the state's caucus, according to a poll by Edison
Research.
That compared to four in 10 who said the economy was No. 1 and three in
10 who pointed to immigration.
National polling provides a similar picture. When Americans have cited
matters involving foreigners as the country's top problem, they most
often have referred to immigration and not foreign conflicts, Reuters/Ipsos
polling over the last decade shows.
In a December Reuters/Ipsos poll, 6% of respondents nationwide said war
and foreign conflicts were the U.S.'s most pressing problem, compared to
11% who cited immigration and 19% who pointed to the economy. Ten
percent cited crime.
While domestic concerns have long dominated U.S. politics, isolationism
has grown in recent years - particularly within the Republican Party -
as Trump and other leaders have criticized U.S. aid to help Ukraine
fight off Russia's 2022 invasion, while Trump has warned America could
become ensnarled in a world war.
Foreign diplomats in Washington are scrambling to assess the former
president's foreign plans, with Trump aides saying he would cut defense
support to Europe, further shrink economic ties with China and again
wield tariffs as a key tool of his foreign policy.
They have also expressed worry at congressional Republicans' opposition
to Democratic President Joe Biden's request for more funds for Ukraine,
for Israel in its conflict with Hamas and for Taiwan as it faces a more
assertive China. The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives
in November passed an Israel aid package that would offset that spending
with cuts to the federal tax-collection agency, an idea the
Democratic-majority Senate has rebuffed.
"Trump has been instrumental in raising questions about our alliances
and our involvement in the world that were pretty much taken for
granted," said Dina Smeltz, a public opinion expert at the Chicago
Council on Global Affairs.
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Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald
Trump speaks on stage during a campaign rally ahead of the New
Hampshire primary election, in Atkinson, New Hampshire, U.S. January
16, 2024. REUTERS/Elizabeth Frantz
A Chicago Council poll in September found that 53% of Republicans
thought the U.S. should "stay out of world affairs," the first time
a majority of either party backed such an isolationist stance in the
council's polls going back to 1974.
NATO SKEPTICISM
If elected to a second term following his 2017-2021 presidency,
Trump is expected to install loyalists in key positions in the
Pentagon, State Department and CIA whose primary allegiance would be
to him, allowing him more freedom to enact isolationist policies.
Thierry Breton, a French commissioner who is responsible for the
European Union's internal market, said earlier this month that in
2020 then-president Trump told top European officials the United
States would never help Europe if it came under attack, and that
Washington would withdraw from its NATO military alliance with
European countries and Canada.
It is not just Republican lawmakers who are skeptical about aid for
allies. Republican respondents to a January Reuters/Ipsos poll
showed a similar view with one in three backing sending weapons to
Ukraine, and just one in five when respondents were asked whether
they support providing Ukraine with both weapons and money.
Nearly half of Republicans supported sending weapons to Israel. The
level of support was slightly lower for both money and weapons.
Some of those closest to the United States have also expressed
concerns about the prospect of another Trump presidency, with
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau saying on Tuesday: "It wasn't
easy the first time and if there is a second time, it won't be easy
either."
(Reporting by Jason Lange; Additional reporting by Simon Lewis;
Editing by Scott Malone and Daniel Wallis)
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