What does Red Sea disruption mean for Europe's economy?
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[January 19, 2024] By
Mark John
(Reuters) - Weeks of attacks by Iranian-backed Houthi militants on
vessels in the Red Sea have disrupted shipping in the Suez Canal, the
fastest sea route between Asia and Europe carrying 12% of global
container traffic.
For the European economy, already skirting a mild recession as it tries
to shake off high inflation, prolonged disruption would be a new risk to
its outlook and could derail plans by central banks to start cutting
interest rates this year.
Here are some factors that policymakers are considering as they assess
the situation and its implications.
WHAT HAS BEEN THE IMPACT ON THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY SO FAR?
In macroeconomic terms, small to negligible. While Germany's Economy
Ministry stressed it was monitoring the situation, it said this week
that the only noticeable impact on output so far had been a few cases of
stretched delivery times.
Bank of England chief Andrew Bailey concurred, telling a parliamentary
hearing it "hasn't actually had the effect that I sort of feared it
might", while acknowledging the uncertainties remained real.
No impact from the attacks has yet turned up in Europe's main economic
indicators - including December inflation numbers, which ticked up
slightly across the region on a mix of largely expected statistical
effects, some one-offs and some pressure on prices for services.
That might change - watch next Wednesday's preliminary PMI readings for
activity in European economies in January, and Feb. 1's first estimate
of euro zone inflation for the same month. ECB President Christine
Lagarde may well broach the subject in her news conference after next
Thursday's rate-setting meeting.
BUT WHY ISN'T IT FEEDING THROUGH TO THE ECONOMY YET?
The main reason is probably that the global economy as a whole is still
performing below par, which means there is plenty of slack in the
system.
Take oil prices, the most obvious channel through which Middle East
troubles could hit economies in Europe and beyond.
They haven't taken off yet because, as International Energy Agency
executive director Fatih Birol told Reuters this week, supplies are
solid and demand growth is slowing.
"I don't expect a major change in the oil price because we have an ample
amount of oil coming in the market," he said.
German logistics giant DHL said it still had available air freight
capacity - not an option for everyone - because the global economy was
"not really pumping yet"
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A Houthi fighter stands on the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red
Sea in this photo released November 20, 2023. Houthi Military
Media/Handout via REUTERS/File Photo
This subdued economic picture also makes it harder for companies to
pass onto consumers any increases in costs they are encountering,
for example by having to re-route around Africa. Many of them have
rebuilt margins in the past year and accept they might simply have
to suck this one up.
"Our best forecast at the minute is we're able to absorb the
incremental cost that we estimate will come through and still
achieve ... gross margin improvement," Poundland owner Pepco Group's
executive chairman Andy Bond told Reuters.
Furniture retailer IKEA even said it would stick to planned price
cuts and had the stocks to absorb any supply chain shocks. As long
as that remains the case for enough companies, the disruption will
not move the dial on consumer price inflation.
SO CAN EUROPEAN POLICYMAKERS SIMPLY LOOK THROUGH THIS?
No - because the longer the disruption goes on for, the more likely
it is to take a toll on the wider economic picture, even if
gradually.
Using an IMF estimate of the impact of freight cost rises, Oxford
Economics in a Jan. 4 note estimated gains in container transport
prices would add 0.6 percentage points to inflation in a year's
time. The ECB is expecting euro zone inflation to fall from 5.4% in
2023 to 2.7% this year.
"While this suggests that a sustained closure of the Red Sea
wouldn't prevent inflation from falling, it would slow the speed at
which it returns to normal," Oxford Economics concluded. It did not
see this preventing an expected pivot to lower interest rates,
however.
At the margins, the Houthi attacks and wider troubles in the Middle
East represent one of the "geopolitical risks" that get referred to
in the minutes of central bankers' monetary policy discussions. The
fear is of escalation - and that fear itself may feed into the
decisions that emerge.
Finally - and we may still be some way off this - there is the
possibility the situation will encourage companies to advance plans
drawn up after the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted trade for
alternative, more predictable supply routes.
That could involve longer but more secure trade paths and
"near-shoring" or "re-shoring" to bring production closer to key
markets. But whatever options are explored, the likelihood is that
they all have one thing in common - higher costs.
(Writing and reporting by Mark John; Editing by Catherine Evans)
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