Haley woos independents in final New Hampshire push against Trump
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[January 22, 2024]
By Gram Slattery and James Oliphant
PORTSMOUTH/KEENE, New Hampshire (Reuters) - Tom Mita, a 45-year-old
non-profit worker in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, is not registered with a
political party. That makes him the perfect target for Nikki Haley, who
needs independent voters for a chance to prevail in this pivotal primary
state.
Mita is thinking about voting for Haley, he told a pair of door knockers
who were canvassing on behalf of the former U.S. ambassador to the
United Nations outside his suburban home on Saturday, but he isn't
completely sold on her candidacy.
He wants Haley, who has so far spared Donald Trump from some lines of
attack, to go after him more aggressively. He considers Trump a threat
to democracy for trying to overturn his 2020 election loss to Democratic
President Joe Biden. If Haley pulls her punches, he may vote in the
Democratic primary instead.
"It's really about stopping Trump," said Mita, standing outside his
door, hands stuffed in his pockets, on a 19-degree Fahrenheit day. "Best
scenario would be if she comes out and says that she won't endorse Trump
for president."
Voters like Mita, who are unaffiliated with either major party, will be
crucial to Haley if she is to pull off an upset and beat Trump in New
Hampshire, which holds its primary on Tuesday. She likely needs a
victory here or a very close second to survive, following her third
place finish behind Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis last week in
Iowa.
Voters untied to either party are the state's most important bloc. They
account for 343,000 of all registered voters, eclipsing both the number
of registered Republicans and Democrats, according to data from the
secretary of state.
Unaffiliated voters are allowed to participate in the primary of their
choice. About 30% are effectively Republicans, 35% align with Democrats,
and 35% are truly independent, estimates Andrew Smith, director of the
University of New Hampshire Survey Center and a political science
professor.

Given Trump's stranglehold on the Republican base, Haley will need to
secure the support of 70% to 75% of unaffiliated voters in order to win
the state, he said.
"That's never happened before," said Smith. "That's a really tall
order."
While Haley has closed the gap with Trump in New Hampshire, the former
president retains a comfortable lead of 14 percentage points according
to an average of polls compiled by website FiveThirtyEight.
SUPER PAC BOOST
Trump has in recent days sought to portray Haley's gains in state polls
as improper because they reflect growing support among independents. He
has also falsely claimed registered Democrats would be allowed to vote
in the Republican primary.
Chris Ager, chair of the state Republican party, noted that Trump
himself benefited from the backing of independent voters when he won New
Hampshire in 2016, reviving his campaign after a loss in Iowa. Ager
thinks Trump will win but gives Haley an outside shot.
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Audience members listen as Republican presidential candidate and
former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley speaks at a
Get Out the Vote campaign rally ahead of the New Hampshire primary
election in Derry, New Hampshire, U.S., January 21, 2024.
REUTERS/Brian Snyder

"Nikki Haley could win New Hampshire," he told a media roundtable
hosted by Bloomberg in Manchester on Saturday. "The undecideds can
break very late."
Haley's bid could be boosted by a super PAC formed to persuade
right-leaning independents in New Hampshire to support her. The
group, Independents Moving the Needle, has been airing a number of
supportive ads on local television.
One of the committee's founders, Jonathan Bush, told Reuters the
group is trying to appeal to “rational Americans” who want to move
on from Trump and Biden.
“We’re excited at the traction,” said Bush, a cousin of former
President George W. Bush who helped launch the effort after seeing
Haley speak in person. Bush e-mailed his contact list and set up an
online fundraiser for Haley that netted more than $1 million, he
said.
Independent voters, Bush said, are the fastest way for Haley to “get
in the ring” against Trump and make it a two-candidate race.
At campaign stops on Saturday, Haley spoke of her appeal to a wide
swath of voters, referring to a new Marist College poll that showed
her beating Biden in New Hampshire by three percentage points while
Trump would lose by seven points.
Angelika Fretzen, 54, an independent voter from Peterborough, New
Hampshire, was sold on the pitch. "She’s a great alternative to
Donald Trump," Fretzen said after attending a rally on Saturday. “I
think it’s time for a new generation, and I think a lot of
independents of my age group feel that way."
Carrying out the door knocking was Americans for Prosperity Action,
a super PAC mainly funded by billionaire Charles Koch. Of the eight
interactions with voters observed by Reuters on Saturday, the
canvassers engaged with four Republicans, three independents and one
person who did not disclose his affiliation.
Mita and another independent said they were leaning toward Haley
while the third plans to vote for Trump. The Republicans were split
between Trump and Haley, two to two.
One Republican, Chris Jay, gave a reason for considering Haley that
meshed with Mita's rationale. Jay, a 57-year-old lumber broker, said
he wanted Haley to go after Trump more.
"I think Trump needs to be put in his place a little bit," he said.
(Reporting by Gram Slattery and Nathan Frandino in Portsmouth, James
Oliphant in Keene and Nathan Layne in Manchester, New Hampshire;
Editing by Daniel Wallis)
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