Finland's presidential hopefuls vie to offer toughest stance on Russia

[January 25, 2024]  By Anne Kauranen

HELSINKI (Reuters) - Maintaining friendly relations with Russia used to be an important task for Finnish presidents, but Sunday's election of a new leader will mark an unprecedented hardening of their approach towards the old neighbour.

For the first time since World War Two, Finland's presidential hopefuls are competing to present the toughest stance against Russia during their campaigns, aiming to please voters who perceive Russia's behaviour towards its neighbours as hostile and aggressive, political analysts said.

Finns were angered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and are worried about a surge in migrants arriving in Finland via Russia, which led the Nordic country to close its entire 1,340-km (830-mile) border with Russia to passenger traffic.

"If previously the aim was to compete over who had the best relations with Russia and who was best able to negotiate and interpret Russian politics, now the competition has shifted more towards who has the toughest stance in relation to Russia and perhaps also in defence policy," University of Helsinki political scientist Johanna Vuorelma told Reuters.

Finland's president leads on foreign and security policy in close cooperation with the government and represents the country at NATO meetings, while also acting as a Commander-in-Chief of the Finnish Defence Forces.

The Nordic country was admitted to the Western defence alliance last year, ending seven decades of military non-alignment and drawing threats from Moscow of "counter measures".

The new president will replace retiring Sauli Niinisto, nicknamed the "Putin Whisperer" for his previous close connections with the Russian leader.

BORDER CONCERNS

The frontrunner in polls, centre-right Alexander Stubb of National Coalition said the next president will not only be the first Finnish NATO president, but also "a Western president in many ways".

"The way in which I see it is that the leaning is very much towards the West," Stubb said in a Jan. 12 interview with Reuters.

Nationalist candidate Jussi Halla-aho of the Finns Party, who is third in polls and rising, has adopted the toughest stance towards Russia as he tries to catch up with Stubb and liberal candidate Pekka Haavisto.

Presidential candidates are pictured on election posters in Espoo, Finland, January 18, 2024. Lehtikuva/Heikki Saukkomaa via REUTERS

Halla-aho, an EU critic and an anti-immigration hardliner, has publicly called Russia "a rogue state" and wants to revoke Finnish citizenship from dual Russian-Finnish nationals.

Pro-European former prime minister Stubb joined Halla-aho and two other right-wing candidates in supporting the idea of revoking dual citizenships in a recent election debate.

Halla-aho has also called for harsh measures in responding to what Helsinki calls the funnelling of migrants to Finland's border by Moscow in retaliation for Finland's NATO membership and its increased defence cooperation with the US.

The Kremlin has rejected the accusations but Finland fears Russia will start ushering migrants through the vast forests that cover most part of the huge border the countries share, similar to what has happened on the Polish-Belarussian border.

"We must be prepared to enforce pushback at the border, that is, to refuse to accept asylum applications from people who most likely are not in acute need of international protection," Halla-aho said on Tuesday during a TV debate, in a loose reference to the Polish border guards' practice of pushing migrants back across the border to Belarus.

Poll leaders Stubb and Haavisto did not mention pushbacks but expressed support for protecting the border by forcible means if necessary.

The president's role in leading Finland's participation in NATO is uncharted territory which the election winner will shape and define, Helsinki University Professor of Political History Juhana Aunesluoma said.

"There are genuine concerns about what is the so-called parliamentary cover for Finland's NATO policy. That is, to what extent the Parliament will be able to oversee Finland's NATO policy," he said.

(Reporting by Anne Kauranen in Helsinki; Editing by Toby Chopra)

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