Marketmind: Refunding fuel, megacaps update, China ailing
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[January 30, 2024] (Reuters)
- A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Spurred by falling estimates of U.S. Treasury borrowing, a sweep of
megacap earnings updates and this week's upcoming Federal Reserve
decision, Wall St. stocks and bonds have surged anew - in stark contrast
to another slide in China's ailing markets.
U.S. assets got a fresh lift late on Monday after the U.S. Treasury cut
its estimate of first quarter borrowing and refunding needs by $55
billion to $760 billion - mainly due to higher revenue from surprisingly
brisk growth and higher cash balances.
The Treasury also said it expects quarterly borrowing to slow sharply to
$202 billion in the second quarter.
Fears over how markets would absorb the heavy government debt schedule
have had a significant impact on long-term borrowing rates over the past
six months and marked key turning points in the market.
The latest refunding news - which will be followed on Wednesday with
details of debt auction sizes and maturity buckets - electrified the
bond market late on Monday and, in turn, triggered another sharp rally
in stocks near the close.
Ten-year Treasury yields fell back towards 4% in early Tuesday trade -
their lowest level in two weeks.
And with two of the "Magnificent 7" of U.S. megacap stocks - Microsoft
and Alphabet - reporting after the bell later today, the S&P500 took its
cue from lower Treasury yields to surge 0.8% to new record highs.
It's now less than 1.5% from the 5,000 point milestone and stock futures
held most of Monday's gains overnight.
Underpinned by last week's news of an extraordinary confluence of U.S.
growth above 3%, sub-4% unemployment and inflation ebbing close to the
Fed's 2% target, a feel good investment mood is seeping into small cap
stocks as well - with the Russell 2000 index outperforming on Monday
with a 1.7% gain.
The Fed starts its two-day policy meeting later, with markets
comfortable the disinflation process will allow it to signal interest
rate cuts ahead. Futures have a first quarter-point cut pencilled in by
May but still hold out a 50-50 chance it will come as soon as March.
The latest rate decision comes before Friday's release of the latest
monthly employment report, but there will be a labor market update on
December job openings later on Tuesday.
A jam-packed diary also includes January consumer confidence soundings.
And the International Monetary Fund also releases its latest World
Economic Outlook later on Tuesday.
However the IMF assesses mounting evidence of a U.S. soft landing, the
picture in the world's second-biggest economy is very different.
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A street sign for Wall Street is seen outside the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., July 19, 2021.
REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo
Contrasting with the ebullience on Wall St, Chinese market sentiment
continues to deteriorate under a suffocating property market bust
that may take many more months and years to resolve and threatens
widening consumer and asset price deflation.
With Monday's court order to liquidate the world's most indebted
property company China Evergrande posing even more questions about
possible real estate fire sales and mainland legal wranglings,
still-piecemeal government support measures have been overshadowed.
The blue-chip index and the Shanghai Composite both closed down 1.8%
and Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost more than 2%. The CSI300 has now
given back more than half its bounce on last week's monetary policy
easing and is stalking five-year lows again.
Elsewhere, oil prices fell back sharply from Monday's peaks and
stayed lower early today - in part as China worries offset Middle
East tensions.
Norway's $1.6 trillion sovereign wealth fund, the world's largest,
reported a record profit of 2.22 trillion Norwegian crowns ($213
billion) in 2023, driven by strong returns on its investments in
megacap technology stocks.
And the euro zone economy narrowly avoided a technical recession in
the last three months of 2023 despite shrinking output in Germany,
mainly thanks to strong growth in Spain and Portugal and a modest
increase in Italy.
With the Fed decision looming, however, the dollar was barely
changed against the major currencies.
Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on
Tuesday:
* U.S. corporate earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Pfizer, GM,
Marathon, Starbucks, UPS, Sysco, MSCI, HCA, Corning, Danaher,
Juniper, Teradyne, Stryker, Mondelez, Chubb, Match, AMD, Equity
Residential, Boston Properties, Robert Half, AO Smith etc
* International Monetary Fund releases updated World Economic
Outlook in Johannesburg
* U.S. Jan consumer confidence, U.S. December JOLTS job openings
data, Dallas Fed January service sector survey, U.S. November home
prices
* U.S. Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee starts
two-day meeting (to Jan 31)
(By Mike Dolan, editing by Sharon Singleton mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)
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