Futures rise on higher odds of Trump victory after shooting

[July 15, 2024]  (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Monday on higher odds of presidential candidate Donald Trump winning a second term after surviving an assassination attempt, while interest rate cut hopes continued to lift sentiment.

Trump was shot in the ear on Saturday during a rally in Pennsylvania in what authorities were treating as an assassination attempt. His face spattered with blood, Trump pumped his fist moments after the attack and his campaign said he was fine after the incident.

Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 67 cents, from 60 cents on Friday, with the Democrats at 37 cents.

The dollar rose against major currencies and Treasury yields ticked higher on Monday. Under Trump, markets expect hawkish trade policy and looser regulation over issues from climate change to cryptocurrency.

"Trump as President is likely a positive for risk ... we should see S&P500 futures and the USD push higher today," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.

"It's the promise of de-regulating U.S. industries which should be the big equity kicker."

Shares of companies linked to the former U.S. president soared in premarket trading. Trump Media & Technology Group was one of the most actively traded stocks and jumped 63.5%, while software firm Phunware gained 49.4% and video-sharing platform Rumble rose 16.7%.

Crypto stocks also leapt as bitcoin rose 8% to a two-week high, with exchange Coinbase Global up 5.7% and miners Marathon Digital holdings and Riot Platforms rising more than 6% each.

Shares of other companies expected to benefit from a second term for Trump also increased. Gunmaker Smith & Wesson rose 2.5% and prison operator GEO Group was up 7.0%.

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 7, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

The gains followed a strong rally on Friday, with Wall Street's main indexes ending the week higher and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 touching intraday record highs, as investors upped bets on a September interest rate cut by the Fed after cooler-than-expected inflation data.

Traders now see a more than 91% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut by September, and have priced in two cuts for this year. The Fed's last set of economic projections showed policymakers expect to cut rates just once.

As the quarterly corporate earnings season ramps up this week, it remains to be seen if megacaps can justify their high valuations. Goldman Sachs and BlackRock are scheduled to release results before market open.

Comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, are expected later on Monday and will be parsed for clues on their assessment of the latest data.

At 5:13 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 211 points, or 0.52%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 24.5 points, or 0.43%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 102.25 points, or 0.5%.

(Reporting by Lisa Mattackal in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)

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