LDN - Business

Treasuries slip, dollar steady as markets weigh Trump attack fallout

[July 15, 2024] By Iain Withers and Wayne Cole

LONDON/SYDNEY (Reuters) -The dollar held steady on Monday, while long-dated U.S. bond yields rose, as investors weighed whether an assassination attempt on presidential candidate Donald Trump increased his chances of victory.

European stocks drifted lower, after weak economic data from China helped set a cautious tone, while dour updates from British luxury group Burberry and watchmaker Swatch Group raised questions about consumer confidence.

In the United States, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both up around half a percentage point. The world's largest money manager BlackRock kicked off a busy earnings week by reporting record assets of $10.65 trillion, sending its share up 1.2% in premarket trading.

Investors have tended to react to the prospect of a Trump win by pushing Treasury yields higher, in part on the assumption his economic policies would add to inflation and debt.

Online betting site PredictIT has a Republican win at 67 cents, up from 60 cents on Friday. Benchmark 10-year Treasuries fell in price, pushing the yield up by 4 basis points to 4.227% - set for its largest one-day rise since July 1.

Eren Osman, managing director of wealth management at Arbuthnot Latham, said a likelier Trump victory would be seen as a positive for risk assets, noting a strong rally for bitcoin since the weekend, but added a word of caution.

"It would be reasonable to suggest it invigorates the Trump supporters to go vote, but they were probably the population of voters that were most likely to go and vote anyway," Osman said.

U.S. retail sales data due on Tuesday was likely to be closely watched for clues on how consumers are faring, after recent data showed slowing growth, he said.

The dollar index was steady at 104.09, underpinned by gains in the U.S. currency against the yen, rising 0.2% to 157.96, following a bout of suspected Japanese intervention last week.

The euro was broadly flat at $1.091275, while bitcoin - seen benefiting from lighter regulation under a Trump administration - was up about 4% at a two-week high.

European stocks slipped 0.4%. Japan's Nikkei market was shut for a holiday.

CHINA DATA MISSES

Disappointing economic data kicked off a busy week in China, where a once-in-five-year gathering of top officials runs from July 15-18.

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A woman walks past a screen displaying the Hang Seng Index at Central district, in Hong Kong, China March 17, 2023. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu/ File Photo

Second-quarter growth in the world's second-largest economy was 4.7% higher than a year earlier, missing a 5.1% analyst forecast.

Of particular concern was the consumer sector, with retail sales growth grinding to an 18-month low, while new home prices dropped at their fastest pace in nine years.

"Markets are hoping that more significant measures could be announced during this week's plenary session to help the limping economy and ailing property sector," said Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC in Singapore.

The onshore yuan was steady at 7.2695 per dollar, after coming under pressure earlier in the session. Mainland stocks were broadly flat and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.5%.

Later this week, the United States will release data on retail sales, industrial production, housing starts and weekly jobless claims.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will appear at the Economic Club of Washington later on Monday and is bound to be asked for his reaction to last week's subdued inflation reading.

Markets are pricing in a 94% chance the Fed will cut rates in September, up from 72% a week earlier.

The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is considered near certain to hold rates at 3.75%, ahead of another cut seen likely in September.

Among the host of companies reporting earnings this week are Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Netflix and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing.

In commodity markets, gold edged up 0.2% to $2,417 an ounce, just off last week's top of $2,424. [GOL/]

Oil prices inched up, having fallen on Friday amid signs of progress on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. [O/R]

Brent and U.S. crude were both broadly flat at $84.98 and $82.14 per barrel respectively.

(Reporting by Iain Withers in London and Wayne Cole in Sydney; Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore; Editing by Christian Schmollinger, Jamie Freed, Arun Koyyur and Susan Fenton)

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