Trump Media, gun stocks surge after assassination attempt

[July 16, 2024]  By Medha Singh, Noel Randewich

(Reuters) -Crypto stocks, gun stocks and shares of other companies that could benefit from a Donald Trump presidency jumped on Monday after an assassination attempt on the Republican candidate boosted expectations he would win the November election.

Trump's survival after he was shot in the ear during a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday increased his already considerable lead in betting odds over President Joe Biden.

Those odds rose more later on Monday after Trump chose U.S. Senator J.D. Vance to be his vice presidential running mate as the Republican Party officially nominated the former president to run again at the start of the party's national convention in Milwaukee.

On politics-wagering website PredictIt, contracts for a Trump election victory traded at 70 cents, up from 60 cents on Friday, with a potential payout of $1. Contracts for a Biden victory were at 26 cents.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, majority-owned by Trump, soared 31%, lifting its stock market value to $7.7 billion, despite revenue comparable to two U.S. Starbucks shops.

Trump Media is the parent company of social media platform Truth Social, and its shares have now surged 132% in 2024 as retail traders bet Trump will win a second term as president. Added: He previously served from 2017 to 2021.

"It's nearly four months to go (until the election) and things can change, but today the markets are betting on Trump being the victor," said Ben Laidler, head of equity strategy at Bradesco BBI, adding that Trump Media "is the tip of the spear and the most sensitive to a Trump victory."

Shares of electric vehicle maker Tesla ended 1.8% higher after billionaire CEO Elon Musk publicly endorsed Trump following the shooting.

Tesla gave back earlier gains of as much as 7% after the announcement of Vance as Trump's running mate.

Vance last year introduced legislation to eliminate EV tax subsidies and replace them with tax credits for U.S.-made gasoline or diesel-powered vehicles. The bill would gut a core part of the White House clean vehicle strategy and has no realistic chance of winning approval in the current Democratic-controlled Senate.

Crypto stocks soared on Monday, tracking a 10% rally in bitcoin to a two-week high. Trump has presented himself as a champion of cryptocurrency. Crypto exchange Coinbase Global and bitcoin miners Riot Platforms and Marathon Digital jumped between 11% and 18%.

Long-dated U.S. bond yields rose on expectations that Trump policies would drive up government debt and stoke inflation, while the benchmark S&P 500 rose 0.3%.

A man looks at this phone as a screen displays trading information about shares of Truth Social and Trump Media & Technology Group, outside the Nasdaq Market site in New York City, U.S., March 26, 2024. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File photo

"Most investors are not changing their overall commitment to U.S. equities. After all, the broad stock market rose under the last Trump administration and has risen under the Biden administration as well," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments.

Gun makers and ammunition stocks Smith & Wesson Brands, Sturm Ruger & Company and Ammo jumped between 5% and 15%. Gun stocks in the past have surged following mass shootings, civil unrest and fears of gun control that have led to people to buy more firearms out of fear that their availability would become limited.

Shares of private prison operators Geo Group and CoreCivic each jumped about 8%. Both are potential beneficiaries of a Trump presidency as he has promised to crack down on illegal immigration, which could boost demand for detention centers.

Video-sharing platform Rumble, popular with conservatives, soared 21%.

Clean energy stocks slipped as Trump has said he would reverse many of the Biden administration's signature climate policies, including tax incentives, if he wins the election.

The Invesco Solar ETF fell 5.9% and the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF fell 3.9%.

The iShares MSCI China ETF dropped about 2%. Investors believe a second Trump presidency could fuel trade tensions between Beijing and the United States.

U.S. voters view Trump as the better candidate for the economy, according to Reuters/Ipsos polls, even as Biden's White House seeks to benefit from a solid economy with inflation slowing and low unemployment.

"In the absence of any real policy proclamations from Trump, traders are finding themselves having to speculate," said Mark Malek, chief investment officer of Siebert Financial Corp.

"A second Trump presidency would mean expansionary economic stimulus in general, lower income taxes, less regulation, and increased tariffs."

(Reporting by Medha Singh in Bengaluru and Noel Randewich in Oakland, California; additional reporting by Pranav Kashyap in Bengalaru; Editing by Devika Syamnath and Matthew Lewis)

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