LDN - Business

Dollar, US futures rise as 'Trump trade' undermines other assets

[July 16, 2024] By Amanda Cooper

LONDON (Reuters) -Global shares dipped on Tuesday as investors pondered what Donald Trump's victory would mean for the rest of the world, while the yen slid against a firmer dollar, prompting more warnings from Japanese officials after last week's suspected intervention.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told an event at the Economic Club of Washington on Monday that recent inflation data bolstered policymakers' confidence that price pressures are on a sustainable path lower.

Markets took this as another signal the first U.S. rate cut may not be far off, but investors were more preoccupied by the fallout from the attempted assassination on Saturday of former U.S. President Trump, who nominated J.D. Vance on Monday as his vice presidential running mate.

The MSCI All-World index dipped 0.1% but remained in sight of record highs, while in Europe, the STOXX 600 fell 0.3%, driven lower by a handful of earnings misses and the prospect of intensifying trade tensions with the United States under a second Trump administration.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures were up 0.1%, suggesting a modestly higher open later on.

Opinion polls show a close race between Trump and President Joe Biden, though Trump leads in several swing states that are likely to decide the election.

The Dow Jones hit a record closing high, thanks to energy and banking shares. Bitcoin jumped, gold climbed towards a record high and the yield curve steepened as investors favoured so called Trump-victory trades.

"He's already the favourite, by some margin, so he’s becoming even more of a favourite. I don’t think choosing Vance makes a big difference one way or the other," Colin Asher, economist a Mizuho, said. "It's just an indication of his confidence that he doesn't need to ‘split the ticket', because Vance is not a million miles away from Trump, politically," Asher said.

"Vance is particularly tough on China, so that’s one of the reasons for the weakness in Chinese assets today," he said.

The Shanghai Composite index fell 0.1%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 1.6%, having already dropped 1.5% the day before as soft economic data from China heightened the risk that Beijing could miss its 5% growth target this year, barring forceful stimulus.

"For now, the Trump trade is buy American stocks and ditch everything else," XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said.

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A man walks past the London Stock Exchange in the City of London October 11, 2013.REUTERS/Stefan Wermuth//File Photo

"The S&P 500 has reached a fresh record high at the start of this week, and is easily outpacing its European stock index counterparts," she said.

Fed Chair Powell said on Monday the three U.S. inflation readings over the second quarter do "add somewhat to confidence" that inflation is returning to the Fed's target in a sustainable fashion.

Markets have now fully priced in a quarter-point rate cut from the Fed in September, with a total easing of 68 basis points (bps) expected by the end of the year.

That kept a lid on the U.S. dollar, although it was 0.1% firmer on Tuesday against a basket of major currencies, largely down to renewed weakness in the yen.

The dollar rose 0.3% on the yen to 158.44, eroding gains in the Japanese currency since Tokyo's suspected intervention last week disrupted the popular carry trade.

It also drew fresh warnings from Japanese officials that the government stands ready to take all possible measures to counter excessively volatile currency moves.

Data on Tuesday showed the Bank of Japan likely intervened a second time on July 12 to the tune of 2.14 trillion yen ($13.50 billion) to support the currency. This follows some $22.43 billion the central bank may have spent on intervention the previous day, according to last Friday's data.

Treasuries found some stability after Monday's sell-off, with the 10-year yield easing 5 bps to 4.179%, having risen 4 bps the day before.

Gold rose 0.6% to $2,437 an ounce, nearing a record high. [GOL/]

Oil prices dropped, driven by concern that a slowing Chinese economy could dent energy demand. [O/R]

Brent futures fell 0.8% to $84.17 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 0.9% to $81.17.

(Additional reporting by Stella Qiu in Sydney; Editing by Sam Holmes, Neil Fullick and Tomasz Janowski)

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