ECB likely to cut rates in September, former central banker says

[July 26, 2024]  By Bansari Mayur Kamdar
 
(Reuters) - A September interest rate cut by the European Central Bank is "very possible", though its future policy will remain data-dependent, a former deputy governor of the Irish central bank said.  

Dark clouds are seen over the building of the European Central Bank (ECB) before the ECB's monetary policy meeting in Frankfurt, Germany, June 6, 2024. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo

Stefan Gerlach, deputy governor at the Central Bank of Ireland between 2011 and 2015, said he expected euro zone inflation pressures to abate further which, along with a "natural weakness" in economic activity, will allow the ECB to continue reducing rates.

"The likelihood of a rate cut in September is material," Gerlach, currently chief economist at EFG Bank in Zurich, told the Reuters Global Markets Forum.

Money markets have priced in 64% odds for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the ECB when it meets next on Sept. 12, which would be its second this year. Traders see a less than 10% chance of a third easing by the ECB in 2024.

The upcoming U.S. elections have the potential to lead to major changes in American economic policies that will unavoidably spill over to other countries, a big concern for the European economy, he said.

"I'm certainly concerned, as I know many other observers are, about how economic (and) other policies in the U.S. could change following the November elections," Gerlach said.

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(Reporting by Bansari Mayur Kamdar in Bengaluru; Editing by Jan Harvey)

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