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Biden’s tough path in North Carolina worsens after debate

[June 29, 2024] By Steve Holland and Stephanie Kelly

RALEIGH, North Carolina (Reuters) -U.S. President Joe Biden's uphill battle to win North Carolina, a state Democrats consider pivotal this election and in which they have heavily invested for months, just got steeper after his shaky showing at Thursday's presidential debate.

Biden delivered a defiant speech in Raleigh, North Carolina on Friday in a rare campaign rally in front of a cheering crowd. "When you get knocked down, you get back up," he said, acknowledging his poor performance against Republican contender Donald Trump and noting he doesn't speak, walk or debate as well as he used to.

He walked off the stage to the Tom Petty classic "I Won't Back Down," following his campaign speech.

Still, polls showed North Carolina voters favored Trump even before the two men's debate, despite Democrats' recent efforts.

Ahead of Friday, Biden had already visited the state three times this year, Vice President Harris has visited five times and Democrats have spent millions on advertising, hiring campaign staff and a county-by-county tour to energize Black and rural voters, convinced the state's changing demographics could mean it flips.

So far, it is not working.

In the 2020 election, Trump beat Biden in North Carolina by under 75,000 votes, or 1.3 percentage points, even though he lost nationally.

He is currently favored to beat Biden in the state by 6.1 percentage points, according to an average of national and state polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight.

That average has not substantively narrowed as Democrats spent time and money in the state: Three months ago Trump led Biden by 6.3 percentage points.

It is unclear how Biden's travel on Friday to North Carolina, which has only elected one Democrat in a presidential election since 1976, might affect the polls.

"This was the state that Biden has come to right after the debate - he's making a point that this is the state we have to have," said Michael Munger, a professor of political science at Duke University in Durham, North Carolina. "And maybe he should have picked one that was a little bit easier."

Since early March, the Biden campaign has spent over $4 million on digital advertisements in the state, most centering on topics such as healthcare, the economy and abortion, according to AdHawk, a digital ad tracking platform by liberal super PAC Priorities USA.

The Trump campaign has not spent any money on digital persuasion ads in the state in that same time period, AdHawk data showed. Americans for Prosperity, a Koch-backed conservative political advocacy group, has spent about $11,500.

In a statement to Reuters, the Biden campaign pointed to Democrats winning in several recent municipal elections in North Carolina swing counties as a sign Biden's agenda will resonate with voters.

There are currently over a dozen volunteer offices in North Carolina in support of Trump, and staff and ground operations continue to expand, a Republican Party source said.

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Signs are seen before Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison meets members of the local community during a trip across eastern North Carolina to engage with rural and Black voters, at Word Tabernacle Church in Rocky Mount, North Carolina, U.S. May 23, 2024. REUTERS/Allison Joyce/File Photo

Previously the Republican National Committee has described Democrats' efforts in the state as lighting "money on fire."

A planned Trump rally in April was canceled due to the weather, but Trump appeared at a NASCAR race in the state in May.

Still, Democrats are redoubling efforts. They have 18 field offices throughout the state and about 80 campaign workers on the ground, a number that is going to be tripled by August, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper told MSNBC on Wednesday.

In 2020, the campaign did not have any field offices in the state at this time.

"I think sometimes people feel that North Carolina is the 'great white whale,' (winning) cannot happen here," state Democratic Party chair Anderson Clayton told Reuters in May. "And I'm like, 'Baby, you gotta give us one more go at this thing.'"

North Carolina's hefty 16 votes in the 538-vote Electoral College that selects U.S. presidents - one more than in the 2020 election - make it an especially attractive prize.

A win would help Biden clinch victory overall even if he loses Arizona, Georgia or Wisconsin, states he won in 2020 that are no guarantee this year.

"If Donald Trump loses North Carolina, he loses the presidency," DNC Chair Jaime Harrison told a room of supporters in Smithfield, a town of about 12,000.

FOCUS ON BLACK VOTERS

Last month, Harrison and Clayton - who is 26 years old and the youngest chair of a state political party in the U.S. - traveled down the eastern side of the state in a two-day blitz aimed to appeal to Black and rural voters.

At about 20%, North Carolina has one of highest Black populations in the country, with eight majority-Black counties, according to the 2020 Census.

Those voters waned in the 2020 election. The number of Black registered voters in North Carolina fell 1.2% from 2016 to 1.52 million, according to a report from Democracy NC, a nonpartisan organization that advocates for voting rights.

Biden can win the state by gaining just 42 more votes per precinct in each county compared to the 2020 election, Clayton has calculated.

Harrison focused on Biden's funding of hundreds of projects in the state through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and capping the cost of insulin at $35 per month for Medicare recipients in the Inflation Reduction Act.

"We know in the Black community, particularly in the South because we eat too much barbecue and banana pudding, we know either you are diabetic, pre-diabetic, or you know somebody in your family or friends that are diabetic," Harrison told a group gathered at Word Tabernacle Church in Rocky Mount, one of the largest churches in the state.

(Reporting by Steve Holland and Stephanie KellyEditing by Alistair Bell)

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