Nine US Senate races to watch in 2024

[March 04, 2024]  WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats are facing a tough map in their quest to hold on to or expand their narrow 51-49 majority in the U.S. Senate in the Nov. 5 elections, as they will need to defend multiple seats in Republican-leaning states.

Below are some races to watch ahead of the 2024 election.

CALIFORNIA: REPUBLICAN BASEBALL STAR IN THE MIX

The race to succeed the late California Democratic Senator Dianne Feinstein has so far coalesced around four major candidates. U.S. Representatives Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee are the top Democrats in the race, which also features Republican former baseball player Steve Garvey.

Schiff, a former House of Representatives Intelligence Committee chairman and the lead impeachment manager in former U.S. President Donald Trump's first impeachment trial, has been ahead in most opinion polls. But California's March 5 primary is unusual, allowing for the top two vote-getters - regardless of party - to advance to the general election.

Lee, who cast the sole vote against authorizing the military use of force after Sept. 11, 2001, and who continues to be a leading voice against war, and Porter, who rose to prominence due to her questioning of executives and administration officials in congressional hearings, are aiming to knock Garvey from the race.

That would in turn set off a competitive general election in a state where the Senate seat is expected to stay in Democratic hands. But Garvey has been polling within the top two positions in many polls.

TEXAS: DEMOCRATS EYE OPPORTUNITY

Though Senate Democrats have more seats to defend than Republicans do, they are eyeing some pickup opportunities - namely seats in Texas and Florida.

In Texas, where every statewide elected official is a Republican, Democrats are seeking another chance to topple Ted Cruz. Cruz narrowly won reelection in 2018 and faced an outcry when he traveled to Cancun, Mexico, on vacation as the state grappled with a devastating winter storm.

Democrat Colin Allred, a former professional football player and civil-rights attorney and a current congressman who represents a district in the Dallas suburbs; Roland Gutierrez, a state senator who represents San Antonio; and Carl Sherman, a member of the Texas House of Representatives and a pastor, are considered the leading contenders to take him on.

Texas' primaries will be held March 5, with a possible runoff on May 28.

OHIO: DEMOCRAT DEFENDING SEAT IN TRUMP-SUPPORTING STATE

Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is seeking to defend his seat in a state that voted for Trump in the 2020 election.

The race to win the Republican nomination so far includes Ohio's Secretary of State Frank LaRose; Matt Dolan, a state senator; and Bernie Moreno, a businessman. Moreno has received Trump's endorsement in the race.

Ohio's primaries will be held on March 19.

PENNSYLVANIA: RETURN OF MCCORMICK

Republicans are eyeing the Pennsylvania U.S. Senate seat as a possible opportunity for them in the perennially competitive state. Democrat Bob Casey is running for reelection, where Dave McCormick, a former hedge fund executive, is vying for the seat.

McCormick had previously run for Senate in 2022, but lost the Republican primary to television personality Mehmet Oz, who had been endorsed by Trump. Oz went on to lose his race against Democrat John Fetterman.

Pennsylvania's primaries will be held on April 23.

MARYLAND: REPUBLICAN CHALLENGER

Larry Hogan, the Republican former governor of Maryland, announced on Feb. 9 that he would run for an open Senate seat. Though Maryland has not elected a Republican senator since 1970, Hogan was a popular governor in the state and polling has suggested the race will be competitive.

David Trone, a congressman and wine magnate, and Angela Alsobrooks, a county executive, are seeking the Democratic nomination for the seat.

Maryland's primaries will be held on May 14.

MONTANA: VULNERABLE DEMOCRATIC INCUMBENT

Democratic Senator Jon Tester is defending his seat in a state that backed Trump during the 2020 election.

Tim Sheehy, a military veteran who founded an aerial firefighting company, is running as a Republican and has drawn the support of other party members in the Senate.

Representative Matt Rosendale, who lost to Tester in 2018, said on Feb. 9 that he would also seek the Republican nomination, potentially setting up a divisive primary fight. But Trump endorsed Sheehy that day and Rosendale dropped out of the race less than a week later.

Montana's primaries will be held on June 4.

NEW JERSEY: LOOKING TO REPLACE MENENDEZ

Democratic Senator Bob Menendez so far has not said whether he will seek reelection after being indicted by federal prosecutors on bribery charges.

But multiple Democrats are eyeing the seat, including Tammy Murphy, the wife of Governor Phil Murphy, and Representative Andy Kim.

New Jersey's primaries will be held on June 4.

UTAH: CROWDED REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Utah is an open seat, with Republican Senator Mitt Romney, a prominent Trump critic and onetime party standard-bearer, announcing last fall that he would not seek re-election. Unlikely to swing to Democratic hands, the state is expected to feature a crowded Republican primary.

The candidates seeking the seat include the former speaker of the state's House of Representatives, Brad Wilson; U.S. Representative John Curtis; and Brent Orrin Hatch, the son of the senator who held the seat for 42 years before Romney.

Utah's primaries will be held on June 25.

ARIZONA: POSSIBLE THREE-WAY RACE

Senator Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats, has not yet declared whether she would seek reelection.

But due to positions that have placed her at odds with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, Arizona may be set to have a rare three-way general election with Sinema, Democratic congressman Ruben Gallego and a Republican candidate.

The Republicans seeking the nomination include Kari Lake, who had been endorsed by Trump during her unsuccessful 2022 run for governor, and Mark Lamb, a county sheriff. Though Lake is considered the leading candidate and has amassed endorsement from key Senate Republicans, she has been embroiled in disputes with other Republicans, including the former head of the state Republican party.

Arizona's primaries will be held on July 30.

(Reporting by Makini Brice; Editing by Scott Malone, Andy Sullivan and Jonathan Oatis)

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