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Commercial real estate (CRE) markets are in the grip of the
biggest downturn since the 2008-9 financial crisis as higher
borrowing costs and a spike in vacancy rates driven by more
people working from home hit demand for office space.
Morgan Stanley analysts said in a research note that regional
U.S. banks looked most exposed, alongside German regional
lenders - which unlike bigger European banks had been increasing
their exposure.
"Overall, we think CRE-related issues will not translate into a
systemic event, but rather a manageable earnings impact
localized to a small set of banks," the analysts wrote.
In a 'stress scenario', in which property price falls force
banks to recognize losses and borrowers' credit quality worsens,
European banks would face a 3% hit to earnings over three years,
which the analysts called "manageable".
That is especially the case as 70% of large-cap European banks
reduced their exposure since 2022 to around 5% of their loan
book, and nearly all lenders have sub-1% exposure to the United
States, where office vacancy rates are 21% versus 8% in Europe,
the analysts said.
By contrast, German regional banks have more than 20% CRE
exposure, with such loans accounting for most of the loan books
of specialist lenders Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal, Morgan
Stanley said.
Among large European lenders, Deutsche Bank has the biggest CRE
exposure to the U.S. market, but the analysts said it was just
1.5% of its loans and that the bank had already set some money
aside to cover potential losses.
U.S. large cap banks have about 11% exposure, while mid-cap
lenders - some of which have seen their shares plunge in recent
weeks - have around 30%, they added.
Refinancing risks and vacancy rates have been "key concerns" for
the market globally, the analysts said, but they saw "notable
differences" between U.S. and European banks.
About $660 billion of CRE debt is set to mature in the United
States in 2024, against $150-$200 billion in Europe, they
estimate.
City office vacancy rates range from 32% and 27% in San
Francisco and Los Angeles respectively, to 9% in London and 5%
in Zurich, according to Morgan Stanley.
(Reporting by Tommy Reggiori Wilkes; Editing by Mark Potter)
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