Biden has a marginal 1 point lead over Trump, Reuters/Ipsos poll shows
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[March 14, 2024]
By Jason Lange
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden had a marginal 1
percentage point lead over Donald Trump ahead of the November
presidential election as each candidate secured enough support from
their parties to appear on the ballot, a new Reuters/Ipsos poll found.
Some 39% of registered voters in the one-week poll, which closed on
Wednesday, said they would vote for Biden, a Democrat, if the election
were held today, compared with 38% who picked Republican former
President Trump. Biden's lead was within the survey's 1.8 percentage
point margin of error.
Many voters remain undecided, with 11% saying they would vote for other
candidates, 5% saying they would not vote, and 7% saying they did not
know or refusing to answer.
Both candidates carry significant liabilities in the first U.S.
presidential election rematch in nearly 70 years, with voters concerned
about Biden's age -- 81 -- and Trump's upcoming four criminal trials,
including on charges of trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat.
The poll, which surveyed adults nationwide, included many ways to
measure support for Biden and Trump, 77, and most pointed to a close
race.
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Trump had a marginal lead among all respondents, but Biden's lead among
registered voters was significant because people who are already
registered to vote are more likely to do so in November. Only two-thirds
of eligible voters turned out in the 2020 presidential election in which
Biden defeated Trump.
In the seven states where the election was closest in 2020, a group that
could again prove pivotal in November, Trump led Biden 40% to 37% among
registered voters. While nationwide surveys give important signals on
who America will vote for, just handful of competitive states typically
tilt the balance in the U.S. electoral college, the ultimate decider in
presidential elections.
With many voters unenthused by either Trump or Biden, the new poll
showed independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr backed by 15% of
registered voters should he appear as a third candidate on the ballot,
down from 17% in a January survey.
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![](../images/031424PIX/news_v42.jpg)
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks about rebuilding communities and
creating well-paying jobs during a visit to Milwaukee, Wisconsin,
U.S., March 13, 2024. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
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It appeared that Kennedy could siphon similar shares of votes from
Trump and Biden. When poll respondents were asked to choose between
Trump and Biden without any other options, Biden led 50% to 48%
among registered voters, with 2% refusing to answer the question.
While Trump easily defeated former South Carolina Governor Nikki
Haley in the Republican Party's party nominating contest, clinching
enough delegates on Tuesday to be the party's candidate, he has
vulnerabilities among independents and even within his own party.
Only about 37% of Haley's supporters plan to vote for Trump now that
she has dropped out of the Republican contest, the poll found. Some
16% said they would vote for Biden and the rest said they would vote
for someone else or not vote at all.
Following a controversial ruling by a conservative court in Alabama
that the frozen embryos used in fertility treatments should be
considered children, the new poll showed only a quarter of
registered voters agreed with that view, while 57% disagreed and the
rest were unsure.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll collected responses online nationwide from
4,094 U.S. adults, including 3,356 registered voters. It had a
margin of error of 1.8% for registered voters and 1.7% for all
respondents.
(Reporting by Jason Lange; Editing by Scott Malone and Leslie Adler)
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