Thailand's Thaksin projects power as loyalists cosy up

[March 18, 2024]  By Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat

BANGKOK (Reuters) - With politicians pouring in to greet him, a dinner with Thailand's prime minister and a police escort to places he went, billionaire former premier Thaksin Shinawatra looked more like a statesman this weekend than a convicted criminal on parole.

Loyalists, cabinet ministers and lawmakers flew to his hometown of Chiang Mai to visit and consult Thaksin, projecting an image of power for a tycoon who loomed large over politics throughout his 15 years in self-exile to skip jail for abuse of power and conflicts of interest.

Thaksin made a dramatic return to Thailand in August and was paroled on Feb. 18, six months into an eight-year jail sentence that had been commuted to a year by the king.

With his family's party in power and ally Srettha Thavisin prime minister, analysts predict it will not be long before Thaksin tries to control politics, testing the limits of an apparent truce between him and a conservative, military elite that toppled three Shinawatra governments, two in coups.

Thaksin, 74, the only Thai leader to be re-elected, appeared in good health on his forays around Chiang Mai as a retired politician greeting supporters and meeting ministers. It was his first visit to his hometown since his 2006 ouster.

The scenes were a stark contrast to a month ago when he left hospital in a neck brace and arm in a sling. His apparent recovery has prompted cynicism from political opponents about the extent of his ailments and anger over his lenient punishment and failure to spend a single night in jail.

"Now that I have returned, those who dislike me they can live their life, I will live mine," Thaksin told reporters on Saturday, insisting he was not in good health, suffering from back trouble and problems with his bones and nerves.

CHANGING LANDSCAPE

But some commentators say that while Thaksin's sway over politicians is not in question, his party's failure last year to win an election for the first time since 2001 demonstrates a weaker hand than previously, and limits to how much influence he can wield on a changing electorate.

Former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is expected to be arrested upon his return as he ends almost two decades of self-imposed exile, waves at Don Mueang airport in Bangkok, Thailand August 22, 2023. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha/File Photo

"We are seeing how things are going smoothly, underneath is a wave of change that is about to disrupt Thai society," veteran journalist Suthichai Yoon on his online show on Saturday.

"We see the differences between the old politics we saw in the past few days, and a new politics that wants to reduce disparity, that doesn't want to see a group of people using money and power to put themselves above the rules."

Thaksin's return and rapid release has fuelled speculation that a deal was done with his enemies in the royalist-military establishment to curtail a more imminent threat to both camps, the popular, anti-establishment Move Forward Party, which won the last election but was blocked from forming a government by conservative lawmakers. Thaksin's family and party have denied any deal.

But Move Forward's rise and continued popularity could eclipse that of Thaksin, who has returned to a new political landscape.

"It will not be easy for him to win back voters," said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University.

"He may still be influential among certain politicians," he said. "But his actual public appeal has changed after all these years."

(Reporting by Panu Wongcha-um and Panarat Thepgumpanat; Editing by Martin Petty and Raju Gopalakrishnan)

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