LDN - Business

Stocks dip, shifts in FX unsettle traders

[March 26, 2024] By Tom Westbrook and Amanda Cooper

LONDON/SINGAPORE (Reuters) -Global shares struggled for traction on Tuesday as mixed messages from U.S. policymakers and a wobble in the Chinese yuan left traders unsettled and tentative ahead of Friday's release of U.S. inflation data.

The risk of Japan intervening to prevent further falls in the yen squeezed the dollar. However, it rose against the yuan on speculation that China may tolerate a weaker currency. [FRX/]

The MSCI All-World index was barely changed on the day, as Europe got off to a weak start and sentiment in China and Hong Kong remained fragile after Friday's sudden slide in the yuan. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3%.

In the spotlight was the yen, which has been trading close to its weakest against the dollar since 1990, even after the Bank of Japan raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years last week.

The 14% decline in the yen's value over the last 12 months fed a surge in Tokyo's Nikkei index to record highs this month, but stirred concern among Japanese officials that the recent depreciation is problematic.

"FX was the wallflower for most of Q1, when we had record highs for stocks," XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said.

"We've got changing sands in the FX market. You’ve got threat of intervention from Japan ... and from China. It’s good to see that they do actually care about the economy and they are wiling to step in. It’s not quite the stimulus we want, but they are saying 'enough is enough now, we do need to worry about our deflation'," she said.

The yen strengthened a touch on Tuesday, leaving the dollar down 0.1% at 151.25.

Monday's rhetoric from Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, kept the yen steady as traders weighed the risk of Japan buying heavily. Kanda said the yen's recent slide was "strange" and "speculative".

Meanwhile, yuan, which the Chinese central bank fixed at a firmer level earlier in the day, also gained ground on the dollar, which fell 0.1% in the offshore market to 7.2464.

Markets have been unsettled since Friday's sharp drop in the yuan after months of tight trading, and some speculate China is loosening its grip on the currency to allow it to fall.

"Whether this reflects a shift in FX policy remains to be seen but accommodative monetary conditions are necessary in the face of growth headwinds," said BofA Securities' strategist Adarsh Sinha.

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A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying various countries' stock price index outside a bank in Tokyo, Japan, March 22, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo

"If (yuan) depreciation sustains and coincides with a weaker credit impulse, Asia FX is vulnerable."

MIXED OUTLOOKS

On Monday, a mixed outlook from Federal Reserve officials threw a few wild cards into the policy outlook while markets wait on the next U.S. inflation indicators due on Good Friday.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he had pencilled in three rate cuts this year, while Fed Governor Lisa Cook urged caution and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic reiterated Friday remarks trimming his expectations to one cut.

"Comments by FOMC participants suggest to us that four voters – Bostic, Bowman, Mester, and Barkin – see zero, one or two cuts this year," said Standard Chartered strategist Steve Englander.

"We still think (chairman Jerome) Powell has eight votes for easing, but he probably does not want an 8-4 vote on the first cut of the cycle. Rather, he may hope that good inflation outcomes will allow him to swing a couple of votes into the cutting camp in the coming months."

U.S. interest rate futures price about three Fed rate cuts this year and about a three-in-four chance of the first cut in June.

U.S. two-year yields, which track short-term interest rate expectations, held steady at 4.589% in Europe.

Later on Tuesday, U.S. manufacturing, services and consumer confidence figures are due. U.S. core PCE data is due on Friday.

Gold and oil prices were broadly steady in commodities trade, with spot gold up 0.5% at $2,181 an ounce, while Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $86.86. [GOL/][O/R]

Bitcoin hovered just above $70,000 after rising sharply on Monday.

(Editing by Lincoln Feast and Bernadette Baum)

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