Morning Bid: March markets serene as Q1 peters out
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March 26, 2024] A
look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan
Investors appear happy to sit on punchy first quarter stock gains as
March drifts to quiet finish, with the dollar back under wraps overseas,
interest rate markets calm and volatility subdued into the Easter break
for many countries.
A slightly downbeat Monday was a mixed bag of fortunes all told.
Under-pressure planemaker Boeing popped more than 1% after announcing a
broad management shake-up and saying CEO Dave Calhoun would step down
from his position at the end of 2024.
Artificial intelligence leaders Nvidia and Micron Technology pushed
higher, but reports China is set to phase out U.S. microprocessors
supplied by Intel and AMD from government personal computers and servers
knocked those stocks back.
A decent two-year Treasury auction kept a lid on bond yields, while
Federal Reserve officials offered a smorgasbord of different views on
the policy outlook that shifted little in futures market expectations.
Sales of new U.S. single-family homes unexpectedly fell in February
after mortgage rates increased during the month, but the underlying
trend remained strong amid a chronic shortage of previously owned houses
on the market.
With stock markets closed for Good Friday's release of the February PCE
inflation gauge, a March consumer confidence readout later today may
grab attention.
Elsewhere, bitcoin jumped back above $70,000 on Monday for the first
time since March 15 - with little obvious news behind it, as is so often
the case. It held those gains overnight and was hovering about $71,000
early on Tuesday.
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Grayscale Bitcoin Trust recorded $1.9 billion in outflows last week,
tipping the group of U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds into net
outflows for the week ending March 22, according to data from BitMEX
Research.
Overseas, China stocks rebounded about 0.5% and the offshore yuan firmed
another notch after last week's swoon.
China's President Xi Jinping will meet with American business leaders in
Beijing on Wednesday, according to three sources with knowledge of the
matter, in a follow up to his November dinner with U.S. investors in San
Francisco.
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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in
New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File
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The meeting was proposed by chief executive of U.S. insurer Chubb,
Evan Greenberg, according to one source. Other attendees include
Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on U.S.-China
Relations, and Craig Allen, president of the U.S.-China Business
Council.
Japanese and European stock markets were flat, as were crude oil
prices. U.S. stock futures were marginally higher ahead of the open
- with Q1's 10% gains in the S&P500 and Nasdaq holding and implied
volatility in stocks and bonds subdued.
The dollar edged back further from Friday's one-month highs.
Dollar/yen ebbed a touch amid wariness about Bank of Japan
intervention, but held above the 151 level.
In politics, a New York judge's decision on Monday to set an April
15 trial date for Donald Trump's criminal hush-money case ups the
odds the former president will face at least one verdict that could
complicate his bid to retake the White House.
And in shocking general news, Baltimore's 1.6-mile Francis Scott Key
Bridge collapsed and vehicles plunged into the river early on
Tuesday after a ship collided with a support pylon. Rescuers were
searching the water for survivors.
Key diary items that may provide direction to U.S. markets later on
Tuesday:
* US March consumer confidence, Feb durable goods orders, Richmond
Fed March business survey, Dallas Fed March service sector survey,
Philadelphia Fed service sector survey, US Jan house prices
* European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane speaks
* US corporate earnings: McCormick
* US Treasury sells 5-year notes
* French President Emmanuel Macron visits Brazil
(By Mike Dolan, editing by Christina Fincher, mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com)
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