Spain PM Sanchez's political gambles face litmus test in Catalan
election
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[May 02, 2024]
By Joan Faus
BARCELONA (Reuters) - Crunch elections in Catalonia next week will test
the wisdom of the latest political gambles by Spain's Prime Minister
Pedro Sanchez, who aims to use the vote to buoy his power nationally but
risks inadvertently awakening a dormant Catalan separatism.
Sanchez aims to wrest control of the wealthy region in the May 12 vote
from separatists who wield outsized influence over Spanish politics. But
if his Socialists perform poorly, the outcome could mangle his fragile
parliamentary alliances in Madrid and undermine the stability of his
minority government.
It may also revive Catalan separatism seven years after the issue set
off Spain's worst political crisis in over 30 years.
Opinion polls forecast a comfortable lead for Socialist candidate
Salvador Illa in the election, with the separatist party Esquerra
Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), which currently runs the northeastern
region, and its more hardline rival Junts appearing neck and neck for
second place.
A win would vindicate Sanchez's conciliatory approach to the region's
independence movement, which most recently included the offer of an
amnesty to Catalan separatists in exchange for their backing of his
minority administration in Spain's parliament.
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It might also reassure the prime minister that there were no hard
feelings among his supporters, after some were troubled by the amnesty
offer. Sanchez hopes as well to shore up support across the political
spectrum, after many Spaniards were shocked by a five-day break he took
from office last month to weigh his possible resignation over what he
said was a smear campaign directed against him and his family by right
wing opponents.
But if the Socialists are unable to secure the 68 seats required for a
majority in the Catalan assembly and have to rely on alliances with
other parties, possibly including right-wing rivals the People's Party
(PP), their victory could be pyrrhic.
Junts has warned that such a deal with the PP would prompt it to
withdraw its crucial support for Sanchez's national government, blocking
the passage of legislation in parliament in Madrid and ultimately making
it untenable.
Conversely, should separatist parties see a late surge in support and
are able to bury old enmities to team up, Sanchez would suffer the
double blow of losing the regional contest and seeing a separatist
movement gain fresh momentum to push its independence ambitions at a
national level, particularly if the victor is the exiled Carles
Puigdemont.
Puigdemont, the former Catalan president who fled to Belgium after
spearheading a failed independence bid in 2017, is running for Junts and
seeks a victorious return. The Spanish arrest warrant he faces over
those events is poised to be lifted by the amnesty, expected to come
into force in late May or June.
SOCIALISTS ASCENDING
A Basque Country election last month already underscored the influence
regional politics has on national government.
The Socialists gained votes in that contest and will return as junior
coalition partner to the moderate nationalist PNV, which in turn
supports the national government.
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![](../images/050224PIX/news_u44.jpg)
Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez delivers a statement as he
announces pardons for jailed Catalan separatist leaders, at Moncloa
Palace in Madrid, Spain, June 22, 2021. REUTERS/Juan Medina/File
Photo
![](http://archives.lincolndailynews.com/2024/May/02/images/ads/current/debbiesfloral_lda_MOTHERSDAY_2024.png)
In Catalonia, the Socialists aim to replicate a strong showing in
the region in last year's national election, when they tallied more
than twice the number of votes cast for the next most popular party
-- the far-left Sumar -- in a result read as signaling a dampening
of pro-independence sentiment.
Their goal this time is to obtain more than 40 seats in the 135-seat
regional chamber, said the Socialist campaign head Lluisa Moret. The
Socialists hold 33 seats in the current Catalan assembly, level with
ERC, while Junts has 32.
At a recent rally, Illa, a calm-mannered former national health
minister whose campaign motto is "to unite and serve", barely
mentioned Puigdemont and did not even refer to the amnesty that
surveys show some socialist voters oppose.
He vowed to move on from a "lost decade" of separatism and focus on
concerns such as climate change - a big issue for Catalonia, facing
water restrictions after a drought.
"Illa would be a good president because he believes in dialogue.
Catalonia is at a moment where it wants reconciliation," said rally
participant David Carvajal, 20.
Vicenc Redon, 71, said the amnesty bill should help mobilize voters
for the Socialists, but he warned that separatist sentiment could
still be rekindled if Puigdemont regains the presidency and launches
a fresh drive to break away from Spain.
BUSES TO FRANCE
Puigdemont has said he plans to end his 6-1/2 years of exile in
Belgium to attend Catalonia's next swearing-in session even if the
amnesty does not remove the risk of his arrest by then.
He is campaigning from over the border in southern France and Junts
has arranged buses from Catalonia to his rallies in Argeles-sur-Mer.
Puigdemont told Reuters he wanted to connect directly with voters
instead of appearing on large screens.
But he conceded it wouldn't be easy to regain the trust of voters
disappointed over his handling of the botched 2017 independence
declaration, and any fresh independence drive would need "more
cunning and better preparation".
Columnist Josep Ramoneda said the election will show whether voters
are nostalgic, or fed up with the 2017 legacy.
"It is a total mistake and will unlikely pay important dividends to
Puigdemont to come out with a discourse of 'we will do it again',"
he said, saying Catalonia had changed.
(Reporting by Joan Faus, editing by Aislinn Laing, William Maclean)
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