In Myanmar war, crucial window looms for junta and rebels
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[May 07, 2024]
(Reuters) - In the jungles of southeastern Myanmar's Dawna
Hills, rebels from an armed ethnic group are fighting to hold back
columns of reinforcements sent by the country's ruling junta to try to
reclaim Myawaddy, a critical trading outpost on the Thai border.
What happens in the next few weeks in the scramble for Myawaddy and
other strategic locations in Myanmar could determine the next phase of a
bloody conflict that has dragged on for more than three years and
ultimately dictate the fate of the junta.
Myanmar has been plunged into chaos since a military coup in February,
2021 led to the rise of an armed resistance that is now working
alongside ethnic minority rebel groups, some of which have been fighting
the military for decades.
The junta and the resistance have a limited window to make gains or hold
their ground, as rain-laden monsoon clouds begin rolling across Myanmar
around early June. Such weather particularly hampers the military that
is strung out on multiple front lines, by blunting the advantage of its
air power, analysts said.
In the balance lie vital trade and military outposts, including Myawaddy
in the southeast, the western Rakhine region where the powerful Arakan
Army has battered the junta and pockets of other provinces along the
border with China and Thailand.
Some of these are areas that the junta will look to retake or hold on to
before the rains arrive, even as the rebels seek to maintain their
momentum, said Zachary Abuza, a professor at the U.S. National War
College and a specialist on Southeast Asia.
"There are a couple of really important strategic objectives for the
military in the coming weeks," he said, referring to key ongoing
battles, including those for Myawaddy and towns in Rakhine state.
A junta spokesman did not respond to calls from Reuters.
Since October, the junta has faced a string of battlefield defeats and,
together with a hemorrhaging economy, is grappling with its biggest
challenge since taking power.
It has lost control of around half of its 5,280 military positions,
including outposts, bases and headquarters, and 60% of territory it had
previously controlled in ethnic minority areas, according to estimates
by the United States Institute of Peace (USIP).
The military could within the next six months lose control of all major
borderlands with Bangladesh, China, India and Thailand, areas where it
is currently battling a mix of rebel groups, a Thai official and a
diplomatic source told Reuters, based on their assessment of the ongoing
fighting.
Stretched thin across frontier territories that are slipping out of its
grip, the junta may look to consolidate resources and prioritize key
areas, they said.
Both asked not to be named because they are not authorized to speak to
media.
'WRITING IS ON THE WALL'
But they added that although the junta was weakened and bleeding troops,
it had retained the firepower to inflict significant damage to
resistance groups and hold the central lowland region, home to the
majority Bamar people.
Even hemmed in, government forces could mount a robust defense and
prolong the conflict, said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a Bangkok-based
regional political analyst.
"I think that this could drag on," he said referring to the turmoil in
the country. But he added the junta's control was in the long run
"untenable".
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Soldiers from the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) patrol on a
vehicle, next to an area destroyed by Myanmar's airstrike in
Myawaddy, the Thailand-Myanmar border town, April 15, 2024. REUTERS/Athit
Perawongmetha//File Photo
"The writing is on the wall," Thitinan said, pointing to the
battlefield losses, emboldened resistance and lack of popular
support.
After losing control of Myawaddy, the military has mounted a
counter-offensive to take back the town, a conduit for border trade
of over $1 billion annually.
The Karen National Union (KNU), one of Myanmar's oldest ethnic
armies, which initially dislodged the military from Myawaddy, is now
battling to hold back the junta assault.
"More than 1,000 troops are approaching and moving forward to
Myawaddy but KNLA joint forces still trying hard for intercepting,
blocking and attacking them," KNU spokesman Saw Taw Nee told
Reuters, referring to the fighting between junta troops and the
group's armed wing, the Karen National Liberation Army.
"Fierce fighting is taking place everyday."
Some 900 km (600 miles) to the west of Myawaddy, the junta is
battling the Arakan Army that is pushing to gain control of Ann, a
key regional military headquarter.
The 793-km (491-mile) Myanmar-China Gas Pipeline also traverses Ann,
with a major pump station located near the town, which analysts say
the military will do everything to hold.
The monsoon rains will complicate the deployment of military's air
power - a key advantage for the junta - with low cloud cover
impacting the use of unguided munitions that are typically used by
its air force, said Richard Horsey, the Crisis Group's senior
Myanmar adviser.
"It's also harder and more dangerous for helicopters to operate in
the monsoon - for transporting troops, resupplying bases that are
cut off by anti-regime forces, and providing fire support," Horsey
said.
Military defections across the country in recent months have
indicated that the junta's failure to resupply troops with food,
water, ammunition, and medical supplies has led to collapsing
morale, according to Abuza at the National War College.
The rains will hand an advantage for the resistance forces that have
the momentum of multiple victories but they remain a diverse set of
ethnic armies and grassroots resistance groups lacking critical
coordination, analysts said.
"Facilitating strategic coordination among the plethora of groups
will take time, but it will be a decisive factor in determining the
outcome of the conflict in Myanmar," USIP's Ye Myo Hein said in a
recent report.
Kyaw Zaw, a spokesman for Myanmar's shadow National Unity
Government, said the junta currently only retained control over big
cities in the heartland.
"Even there, they are getting threatened."
(Reporting by Reuters staff and Panu Wongcha-um in BANGKOK, Writing
by Devjyot Ghoshal; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan)
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