Trade data for April is expected to show outbound shipments grew
1.5% year-on-year by value, according to the median forecast of
31 economists, reversing the 7.5% slump recorded in March.
China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter,
although data on exports, consumer inflation, producer prices
and bank lending for March showed that momentum could be
faltering again, while a protracted property crisis is showing
few signs of abating, spurring calls for more policy stimulus.
China watchers are struggling to make sense of the mixed data
coming out of the world's second-largest economy, which was
reflected in the trade poll.
Goldman Sachs forecasted China's exports grew 5.5% last month,
the poll's highest prediction, while Societe Generale,
conversely, predicted a drop of 3.4%. Economists at Peking
University saw a 5.7% fall, the lowest projection.
In the first quarter, both imports and exports rose 1.5%
year-on-year.
Analysts say Chinese exporters are continuing to slash prices to
maintain sales abroad amid stubbornly weak domestic demand,
evidenced by the fact that export volumes edged up to record
highs in March.
A higher base of comparison last year also likely contributed to
the export drop, economists said, given that production had
jumped last March as many workers recovered from a wave of COVID
infections.
Chinese exporters had a tough time for most of last year as
soaring interest rates weighed on overseas demand. With the
Federal Reserve and other developed nations showing no urgency
to cut borrowing costs, manufacturers may face further strains
as they battle for market share.
China's imports likely increased 4.8% in April, according to the
poll, following a 1.9% drop in March.
Again, economists were divided, with Standard Chartered
forecasting a 9.8% jump in imports, ahead of Barclays, which
expected a 7.0% increase. Goldman Sachs anticipated inbound
shipments to have grown 5.0%, while Peking University saw a 1.3%
increase.
South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's
imports, jumped 9.9% in April, sharply up from a 0.4% rise in
the prior month.
The median estimate in the poll predicted China's trade surplus
will come in at $77.5 billion.
The data will be released on Thursday.
(Reporting by Joe Cash; Polling by Milounee Purohit and Susobhan
Sarkar in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Editing by Kim
Coghill)
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